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Influence of the East on the West/America and the Future

1/28/2023

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Dr. Wordman
 
Thanks to my friend Ms. Sulia Chan who had reminded my interest in the title subject by sending me a whole collection of interesting books and articles recently. She is the one who has arranged a series of interviews for Ms. Charlotte Harris Rees (author of “Did Ancient Chinese Explore America”, “Secret Maps of the Ancient World”, and “The Asiatic Fathers of America - an abridged book of her father, Henry M. Harris’ 700 pages book” to appear on Dr. Wordman Show (Scrammble Game Show, both searchable on YouTube). In those interviews, we discussed Mr. Harris, a missionary, and Mrs. Rees’ work, presenting multiple categories of evidence on Chinese who had discovered America before Christopher Columbus (Cristoforo Colombo) through maps, ancient stone scriptures, artifacts found in America, giant sailboat anchors off California shore, American Sequoia tree leaf's image on old Chinese map, language, similarities of DNA of American Indians and Chinese in Henan province, etc. etc. The point is the East and West were never two separate worlds.
 
Currently, U.S.-China relations have been falling off a cliff not only their trade and economic relations were severely damaged but their cultural interactions also broke down. The U.S. has targeted China as a threat to its security and eagerly formulated a China Policy naming China as an enemy and polarizing the world into two hostile camps. As a citizen paying attention to international relations, this author has been arguing that the present China policy is false. It had wrong assumptions, no honest debates, and serious ignorance of the historical facts of the development of the East and the West and their mutual influence. The fear of threat from China is unfounded. When the East part of the world or Asia surpasses the West or America in economy or in technology, there is no need to fear. The East has a long history and has made strong influence on the development of the West. The author will discuss the past influence of the East on the West and argue that more influence in the future is inevitable and harmless based on historical evidence. As global citizens, we (West or East) must recognize and respect the historical facts, Human development is age-dependent, the age of an individual, the age of a society, the age of a race and the age of the developmental environment, but never the color of the skin.
 
Genetic Science has shown to us that the commonality of human genes is far greater than that of any differences. Historians have taught us that the human development process had far longer history in migration, physical evolution and cultural development than the modern civilization period of a few centuries including industrialization. Dr. Stephen L. Whittington of Wake Forest University, anthropologist, said, “The evidence acceptable to most archaeologists and physical anthropologists both from dental traits and mitochondrial DNA is that the origin of people in North, Central, and South America, from before the coming of Europeans in 1492, was North Asia.” Dr. Thomas Murphy, an anthropologist of Washington State University, also said: “The genetic data from every single one of those studies (dozens of researchers) is telling us the same thing - that is, the American Indians came from the north part of East Asia.“ Tests of 5500 scattered Indians in the continent of America showed 99.4% have mitochondrial DNA originating from Asia and 0.6% have either European or African mitochondrial DNA, lineage after Columbus, according to Australian molecular biologist, Dr. Simon Southerton. In immigrants-populated America, Asian immigrants came first shouldn’t be a surprise. Asian immigration to all parts of the world will be continuing and increasing in the 21st century and into the future. There is no need to fear; since it is a natural part of the human development process.
 
In the history of civilized human migration (humans formed societies and nations), the East (Asia) went West and attracted the West to the East. In a gross analysis, the westward movements were far more peaceful than the eastward movements that happened later. When humans developed sailing technology, again the East was far more advanced as exemplified by the famous Admiral Zheng He’s seven grand armadas (his thousands of large ships), sailing from the Middle Kingdom to Asia, Arab, Africa and beyond in the Ming Dynasty (1405 - 1433). The seven expeditions were peaceful and left their influence as cultural impact, clothing, food, language, etc. In contrast, in later times the West came to the East with colonialism which resulted in wars and division rather than harmony and unification. The colonialism lasted nearly four centuries and not only left a treacherous path of human development but also sowed the seed of human distrust. The West had developed a fear of the reprisal of the East doing what the West had done to the East. The fear of China came out of this logic: China was the victim of the West's aggression during the 19th and 20th centuries. Therefore, despite of China’s claim of its desire for a peaceful rise to bring its citizens to middle income living standards, the West/America insists that China’s rise is a threat to America and the world.
 
The East, especially China, has a galvanizing culture and accommodating philosophy advocating harmonious human development and peaceful unification. In the book, “The Eastern Origins of West Civilization“, the author, Dr. John M. Hobson, has shown that substantial contributions to modern European civilization were made by non-European (Asian/Chinese) people, best summed up as “the oriental contribution to the rise of the West”. Niall Ferguson (author of Empire) in his review of Hobson’s book stated that ”Hobson argues that western industrialization was based in large measure on the adoption of Arab and Chinese knowledge.“ “Many inventions which enabled Europe to dominate the world were actually diffused to Europe from Asia (usually from China) and that Asia/China remained as developed as Europe (and more) until 19th century” was a quote from Michael Mann, author of the book, Source of World Power, in his review of Hobson’s book. Today, in America, the contribution of Asian Americans especially Chinese Americans are so obviously significant in many domains, physical sciences, technologies, engineering, architecture, computer and biomolecular chemistry, it is absurd to have any anti-Chinese policy such as ‘China initiative’ and any anti-China foreign policy such as AUKUS or Quad. The fear of China is ill-grounded as illustrated by historical evidence discussed above, any sanction policy will not be fruitful as proven by China’s successful space exploration program.
 
The future of human development is hinged on cooperation among all humans. Any divisive activities will be harmful and counter-productive. The world leaders and all global citizens should understand this simple truth.
 
 



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Megatrends in the New Year - 2023

1/22/2023

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Dr. Wordman
 
If you were in the Rockefeller Center watching the fall of the silver ball of 2022, you would get the usual excitement of sending away the old weary year and welcoming the brand-new year. From NY Times to Wall Street Journal you would catch the headlines welcoming the 2023. Below these headlines and days to follow, you would hear quite uncertain messages about the New Year. There is great uncertainty about the economy next year with concerns of inflation and recession. In addition, the Russian-Ukraine war does not seem to have an end in sight and the competition with China on trade and technology spells more than troubles. In this column, we have been tracking U.S. - China relations for eight years, but we don’t have a crystal ball that would allow us to see a clear picture of U.S.-China relations in the future. We can only track the events and speculate what might happen, but in no way we could predict the future. At the end of 2022, China had its 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party reviewing its past and laying out its future. The U.S. also had firmed up its strategy of targeting China as its key competitor driving the two countries into a competing bipolar world. China on the other hand is preparing to meet the U.S. challenges with no intention to yield. Based on this background, we could sketch a few trend lines to discuss what might happen in 2023. We do not believe that Taiwan Strait will break out in war, nor the U.S. and China will have a military conflict in 2023. However, we do see some mega trends in the making, hence the title of this column - Megatrends in the New Year of 2023.
 
We see six megatrends that are significant to the U.S. - China relations as follows:
 
I. International Politics - Clear Trend of Bipolar World
 
The U.S.-led unipolar world is clearly heading to an end with a diminishing G7 and rising G20. This trend will be exhibited by an Imbalanced bipolar world with the South Hemisphere rising in prosperity contributing to the bipolar world.
 
The end of a major war - the Russian-Ukraine War will likely end or at least scale down as the EU very much desires to end the war and the US and Russia are seemingly wearing out.
 
The European countries are struggling to reunite and recover from the devastating impact of the energy shortage caused by the Russian-Ukraine war. The people are at their wits' end.
 
The U.S. and North America are struggling to create a bipolar world cutting off supply chains from China, but the cutoff is not possible because of the tight trade relations between China and Southeast Asia and the rest of the world.
 
The trend of South America moving more towards Socialism is accelerating the formation of a bipolar world with China leading a socialism-leaning world. Similarly, Africa is emerging rapidly as a growing economy with China's BRI initiative.
 
II. Struggling World Economy and Tapering of Pandemic

 
The Pandemic will naturally fade away as its new strands are losing power and the world population is gaining immunity.
 
Pumping up the Economy will be the top focus of all major economies from America, Asia and Europe to Africa. This trend is somewhat countering the bipolar movement. Ultimately, world tourism will buck the trend of a bipolar world.
 
China will most likely lead the recovery by 3rd Quarter and continue to be the world economic engine as its people had pent-up energy of savings ready to consume.
 
The U.S. will likely remain struggling with inflation and stimulation with infrastructure investment. The U.S. trade policy will hamper its economic recovery though.
 
The recovery of the EU economy will hinge on the Russian-Ukraine war which cannot afford to be prolonged indefinitely. When the stock of ammunition is  all spent, the economy will force the war to stop or end.
 
In the meantime, the Southeast Asia and China will be the engine of the world economy bringing the world to recover.
 
III. Technology Competition Will Be A Part of Economic Competition
 
The U.S.-driven technology competition with China will be clarified with international conglomerates settling on strategies on whether to pick a side of a bipolar competition or find a means to compromise or avoid bipolar competition.
 
The semiconductor industry will yield to the reality that a bipolar world cannot function well with the separation of technology and markets into two separate worlds. The economy does not support ‘the Cold War’s bipolar economy. China is not like Russia in the last Cold War.
 
Intellectual property-driven technologies and solutions will emerge forcing semiconductor industries to cooperate and share growth. China will make huge investments forcing the world to join her.
 
China will lead in space technology especially in the space station and lunar colony project. China will lead in technologies in making water, atmosphere and fusion energy out of H3 on the moon.
 
Military technology competition will continue with hyper-sonic terrestrial missiles and nuclear- powered vessels at the forefront. China's military industry has become a formidable world supplier if the world continues in military competition.
 
IV. Currency Competition and Rise of RMB

 
China's Central Bank Digital Currency will gain momentum along with trading with the established national currency. The trend of trading with national currency will enhance among developed countries.
 
Dollar-based energy trade will diminish reducing the need for having the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency. This trend may be slow in forming but is never the less significant.
 
Long-term trend of devaluation of the U.S. dollar will be a concern that will impact the value of U.S. dollar-based assets.
 
RMB will increase its usage in world trade and currency trade will rise in stock market trade.
 
V. Finance and International Investment
 
China’s economy will have a surge in the 4th Quarter to release the pent up energy due to COVID.
 
China’s savings will be released through consumption, investment, and tourism.
 
The tight control policy of Zero-COVID over the economy will end with COVID opening. China’s small and medium businesses will be encouraged to expand, hence pumping its economy.
 
China’s International Trade will expand with new ties with the Middle East (Saudi Arabia etc.) , Central Asia (Inland nations), Africa and South America, and a major trade expansion with South Asia.
 
Investments in 3rd and 4th-tier cities in China will continue to contribute significantly to China's economy.
 
VI. Social Trends in China and the World
 
Social media will continue to shift from the West to the East driven by technology and the market. Technology-driven trends such as Tik Tok and AI language translators (social media tools) will prevail in social media and diminish the language barriers.
 
Online shopping and instant delivery (drone technology mobile delivery, ex. coffee to your car) will be a new trend and huge business where both technology and population are the key drivers.
 
Virtual and real-world entertainment will blend into business. (Metaverse products and experiences) The shopping experience in the metaverse world will be a megatrend.
 
5G-7G technology may arrive faster than expected. Huawei and the like companies will be in everyone’s lives from cell phones, electric cars, home appliances and entertainment.
 
The above megatrends are the obvious observables. Technologies tend to bring surprises. China has turned from a technology adapter to innovator and trendsetter. In 2023, we look forward to seeing many surprises as we ponder over these megatrends.


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Americans New Year Resolution - Inflation and Pessimism

1/14/2023

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Dr. Wordman​
 
Setting up New Year Resolution is a good habit. At the year's end or the start of the New Year, people will set up their resolutions. The media is habitually doing a national survey on Americans' New Year resolutions. According to Statista, the top eight resolutions for this year are; exercise more (52%), eat healthier (50%), lose weight (40%), save more money (39%), more time with family/friends (37%), less time on social media (20%), reduce stress on job (19%), and reduce living expenses (19%). According to YouGov America, the top American resolutions are as follows: Improving physical health, Saving more money, eating healthier, exercising more, being happy, losing weight, paying down debt, learning something new, improving mental health, more time with family, relationship with friends, reading more, focusing on the spiritual matter, traveling, quitting a bad habit, spending time with friends, pursuing a new career goal, pursuing a new hobby, getting a new job, and moving. The latter list contains the first list which supports the validity of these surveys. However, these lists, compared with previous years’ surveys, also verify that Americans are concerned with health, exercise, and overeating year after year. This makes one wonder whether New Year Resolution is useful or just a lip service. Perhaps the surveyors should add a few pertinent questions: What resolutions selected are new this year and what resolutions have been repeated from previous New Year Resolutions and why? If a survey could help people more consciously fulfill their resolutions, the survey result would be more meaningful. Realizing a resolution requires willpower and discipline, surveyors should develop the survey with questions helpful to people to achieve their resolutions.
 
A financial goal is another domain often appearing in New Year Resolutions. Financially more successful people generally set their financial goals in their New Year Resolutions. This resolution serves as the motivation factor for a career goal, including an entrepreneur objective and business venture. However, this year’s Motley Fool Survey of New Year Resolutions seems to have found a negative focus - paying off debt and reducing expenses appeared prominently in the New Year Resolution list. One clear correlation with the economy revealed by the survey is the inflation fear which may have shifted people’s minds from positive and aggressive thoughts such as creating wealth to reducing expenses and paying off debt. Motley Fool, a financial and investment consulting firm, published a discussion paper on its ‘survey’, perhaps less broadly based than the above two surveys, but it might have touched on the nerve point of this year’s Americans’ New Year Resolutions. This author would like to comment on Motley Fool’s survey and the discussion paper written by Jack Caparol, an analyst with Motley Fool, with the hope that this article might help people understand the true reason behind pessimism and better realize their New Year Resolutions. The title of Jack Caparol’s article is “81% of Americans with Financial New Year Resolutions See Inflation as a Spoiler”. It highlighted the following key findings in addition to the alarming title: I. 66% of Americans plan on making a financial resolution for the new year, II. 81% think inflation will make it harder to meet their goals III. Only 20% are confident that they will keep their upcoming financial New Year's resolutions, IV. Top New Year's resolution: Paying off debt is the goal of 53% of Americans with financial resolutions, and V. Generational divide: Resolution goals differ by Generation, older generations are more concerned about paying off debt and saving for retirement whereas younger generations are more interested in saving for big purchases and investment.
 
Motley Fool’s key findings are not surprising, in fact, they can be expected. What is interesting in these stats is what we have alluded to above; Americans are pessimistic, and their New Year Resolutions on financial goals shifted to a negative focus. This finding deserves our attention. The U.S. being the superpower of the world offers positive American dreams to Americans and worldwide immigrants coming to America. Yet, this survey made across from baby boomers (born 1946 - 1964) to generation X (born 1965-1980), Y (born 1981-1994, also known as Millennials), and Z (born 1995-2009) showed a very pessimistic outlook not only for the new year, 2023, but also beyond since financial goals as resolution are long-term endeavors. Most Americans are in debt and the U.S. government is not only heavily in debt, but its operation must be sustained by Congress repeatedly raising the U.S. national debt ceiling every budget cycle. This debt burden is a stress for every American for those having a substantial personal debt (interest burden) and even for those without a personal debt (inflation fear). Only 20% of Americans are confident that they will keep their upcoming (financial) New Year's resolution, meaning four out of five will likely abandon their financial goal as New Year's Resolution. Some people like to say that the flood of undocumented immigrants at the U.S. - Mexico border as evidence of American Dream being alive and well, but the U.S. needs better educated and skilled knowledge workers to sustain its economy and to compete with rapidly rising countries. Instead of letting a sound economic policy lead the direction of foreign policies, the U.S. government is stubbornly adhering to its legacy political doctrine - squash competition to maintain its dominance. But time has changed, the world economy is no longer dominated by the U.S. economy. Developing nations can drive their economic growth through hard work and fair trade. China, India and Brazil are just the visible examples, many other nations are eager to emulate the successful Model.
 
Stick to its legacy political doctrine - no one else has a better political system than the U.S.; the U.S. places this political principle as the foundation of its foreign policy well above its domestic policies. Hence, the U.S. economy is dictated by its foreign political objectives. The Trump Administration and Biden Administrations more so have let ‘the targeting China’ policy dictate U.S. trade policy with China. The tariffs and sanctions obviously hurt China and the U.S. in trade and economy. The ever-expanding technology sanctions against China also damage U.S. firms by losing the China market and a vibrant global environment for mutual stimulation. The more sanctions applied to Huawei, the faster it reinvented itself. The more semiconductor sanctions are applied to China, the more independent its industries become. BYD is emerging as the world's number one electric car manufacturer. This U.S. anti-China economic measure is based on the hypothesis that exporting technology products to China will threaten U.S. security. Hence, it warrants sacrificing the U.S. economy. However, this belief in ‘China Threat’ is just like the belief in ‘China Collapse’, a blind faith with no evidential proof. For the past five decades, all predictions of China will collapse are proven false. The ‘China Threat’ theory could not be proven as well since China had never initiated any aggression other than defending its sovereignty and right to develop. Through international political observers' eyes, we see China making progress on its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a program for cooperative development. The international community has gradually leaned toward China resisting the U.S.-led anti-China strategy polarizing the world, hoping to collapse China. This author cannot help but make a connection between Americans’ pessimistic New Year's Resolution and the above political analysis, which is the fundamental cause for Americans’ pessimism.
 
Inflation is the spoiler for New Year Resolutions. Some New Year Resolutions are too expensive to keep and are easily observable. But the real reason for Americans to become pessimistic is that they are deprived of the opportunity to compete freely. The U.S. is rich in resources, oil and gas, huge fertile land for agriculture and an advanced technology base. Why must the U.S. rely on military industries to dominate its national development plan? With more pressure and military spending ($850B), the U.S. cannot stop Russia or China from developing their own defense. China’s progress in space technology should have awakened the U.S. national security planners, it’s time to return to the principle of fair competition, mutual restrain and win-win cooperation which have made the U.S. the superpower it is today. Let Americans compete freely, collaborate with China for mutual benefits and give Americans optimism not pessimism, after all the U.S. winning track record was built on optimism, confidence and the American dream. The current U.S.- China policy is suffocating Americans with pessimism and giving China adrenaline to accelerate its development. For 2023 the world is expecting China to have a GDP growth of 4.5% whereas only 0.5% for the U.S. Low growth breeds pessimism and pessimism leads to low growth. It does not take a genius to figure out what the future is waiting for if the U.S. insists on its current China policy!
​
Ifay Chang. Ph.D., Inventor, Author, TV Game Show Host and Columnist (www.us-chinaforum.org) as well as serving as Trustee, Somers Central School District.
 

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