Taiwan’s future has a complex causal relationship that seems inseparable from Sino-US relations. At present, Sino-US relations have become very tense. The United States has turned from vigilance to worry and even fear about the rise of China. Therefore, the US policy towards China has changed from a deliberately vague policy in the past to a clear anti-China policy. Currently, the U.S. has used various methods, from economic and trade sanctions to military and technological suppression. It can be said that it has done everything possible. The Taiwan issue has also become a pawn in the ambiguous US-China policy. When the US President uses the Cold War mentality of dealing with the Soviet Union to deal with the developing China, the US main purpose seems to be to maintain its position as a world hegemon, and it is unwilling to see that China’s rise will affect its leadership and control of the world. This idea of putting U.S. interests first and U.S. security considerations as the most important is the consistent foreign policy and defense policy of the United States. For example, in the early years, the U.S. suppressed the economic revival of Germany and Japan (too fast catching up behind the U.S.), and in recent years, it used the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO, led by the U.S.) to recruit member states to expand its sphere of influence. These were all behaviors and purposes of maintaining U.S. hegemony. The ostensible purpose of establishing NATO was to help European countries resist the expansion of the Soviet Union. However, after the Soviet Union collapsed due to economic failure in 1991, NATO not only did not disband but continued to expand, encircling and threatening Russia. This resulted in today's Russo-Ukrainian war. There are many ethnic Russian people in Ukraine, but the Ukrainian government suppresses the ethnic Russian people and wants to join NATO ignoring Russia's warning.
What caused the war in Ukraine and consumed Russia's national resources was the US’s consistent policy of maintaining its hegemony. Nowadays, China's rapid economic rise makes the U.S. uneasy, so it uses various means to suppress China. When the suppression does not yield obvious success, it actively begins to establish an anti-China alliance (AUKUS-the U.S, Britain, and Australia and QUAD+ - the U.S., Japan, Australia, India, etc.) and uses Taiwan like Ukraine to launch a protest against China and wage a war. Driven by this policy, Taiwan's status or the cross-strait relations have become very tense. The British Economist even advocates that Taiwan is the most dangerous place on earth, and there is the possibility of mainland China attacking Taiwan with force to achieve reunification. However, since Japan surrendered in WW II and returned Taiwan to China, the cross-strait confrontation caused by the Chinese Civil War has now been seventy-nine years. What contradicts Taiwan being a ticking bomb story is that since the founding of the People's Republic of China (1949), there has been no war on the main island of Taiwan, except the Kinmen Artillery Battle which took place on the outer island on August 23, 1958, the trade between mainland China and Taiwan is closely complementary, giving Taiwan a surplus of $80.55 billion in 2023. Although the mainland will not give up reunifying Taiwan, military reunification is not its preferred option unless it is forced, such as allowing foreign countries to station troops in Taiwan or declaring Taiwan independence. Reunification with Taiwan by force is completely inconsistent with the interests of both sides. It also goes against the historical mandate of China – one Chinese nation.
Against the above background, let us discuss a few central issues: Whether Taiwan know what kind of future it wants? How does Taiwan control its future? Can Taiwan independently determine its future? Under the influence of liberal democratic ideas, Taiwan has adopted the universal electoral system and inherited many of its shortcomings, such as the inability to select talented and capable people (performers who can speak or lie well to get elected), and the inability to assess and hold accountable the elected officials (voters do not have the power of direct supervision), thus Taiwan's society is following a path of pluralism and division (Different parties fighting for power, and fellow parties protecting shortcomings). In a divided society, it is impossible to create a consensus that can truly guide Taiwan's future. Instead, Taiwan struggles with differences and lives in confusion day by day. Currently, there are many different theories promoting Taiwan's demand for independence, but there are also some analyses based on realistic judgments that independence is impossible and will lead to a cruel war with failure. In the ambiguous political environment (under the island's political intrigues and foreign interference), Taiwan's future has become ambiguous and dangerous. Based on careful analysis, Taiwan can only choose to reunify with the mainland, and other paths will only bring treacherous uncertainties to Taiwan with the consequences of losing its ability to shape its future - an outcome that is very unfavorable to the Taiwanese people and their descendants. First, choosing independence is a dead end. Mainland China not only has a historical mission to unify with Taiwan, but under real geopolitical pressure from the U.S, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, China also has no choice but to save the compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Straits for maintaining its independence and self-respect as the Chinese nation on earth. However, unification must be supported by most of the Taiwan people with the understanding of what true (independent) democracy is. Being independent in name but not independent on foreign policy and international affairs is not a true independent democracy but a colonial state. The people of Taiwan must be able to form a consensus on reunification (without foreign influence), accept the challenges of reunification (working towards true independent democracy), strive for benefits (dividends that can be obtained through competition with reunification), and achieve a better future for themselves and their descendants.
Why is Taiwan’s move toward 'independence' a mistake? This is a question that is not difficult to answer. Is Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines independent? They are all chess pieces held under the thumb of the U.S. for dealing with China. Even if China collapses, they will still be pawns of the U.S. The U.S. military presence, like NATO's U.S. military force, remained after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines have no independence or autonomy at all in foreign affairs. Will Taiwan achieve better results than Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines if it takes the road of 'independence' endorsed by the U.S.? Judging from reality (economically and militarily), China's rise will continue, and the days of US permanent hegemony are numbered. The rise of China will allow its neighboring countries to have real independence and true democracy. Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan, and other neighboring countries are obvious examples. Taiwan's development has always been in the shadow of Japan and South Korea. If Taiwan had not had the same culture and language as mainland China, would it have benefited so much in trade? Therefore, Taiwan's pursuit of fake independence is a mistake.
Under unification, not only can Taiwan enjoy dividends, but Taiwan also can pursue true independent democracy, together with the mainland, and improve the national system. As the people of mainland China and Taiwan become more economically equal, they will pursue the same independent democracy, and it will never be an involuntary fake democracy.
The Chinese nation is a peace-loving family of 56 ethnic groups, including Taiwan’s ethnic minorities. During the five thousand years of cultural evolution, Chinese culture has accumulated profound academic theorems and folk understanding of political governance, social ethics, and the value of family inheritance. Therefore, people are above all, and the people are like water. They can carry a boat or capsize it (meaning government). What the people want is to live and work in peace and contentment, and what they expect from the government is protection and public service. To follow its path and establish its system is not a slogan for China but an ever-learning way that suits the Chinese people. One country - two systems (or multiple systems) is China’s code for patient exploration, reform, and innovation in governance. As a world power with a population of more than one billion, it loves peace, seeks collaborative development and common prosperity, proposes the concept of human community with a shared future for mankind, and implements the blueprint of jointly building infrastructure (the Belt and Road Initiative) to pursue world peace, prosperity, and ultimately world harmony - An ideal worthy of common pursuit by mankind. How could Taiwan give up such ideals, pursue involuntary independence, abandon the peace-loving genes inherited by its people, and give up the bright future that peaceful reunification will bring to its descendants? Now Taiwan is at a critical juncture, Thoughtful people must be committed to awakening the people to understand the true meaning of the above-mentioned reunification. Reunification is not about selling out Taiwan, but about seeking happiness for future generations. Seeking nominal 'independence' is not about a true independent democracy but about the selfishness of politicians to preserve their official titles, positions, and powers with no regard for the future of the Taiwanese people. The people of Taiwan and Mainland China should think clearly about the meaning of reunification to pursue unification!