Despite of mainstream media's refusal of giving him a proper endorsement, Trump’s victory does represent a movement and a phenomenon that a large population, bordering a majority of American citizens, is extremely fed up with 'political correctness' slogans uttered by politicians. The only meaningful yardstick that American voters could use amidst complex domestic issues and troubling foreign affairs is the question that are you better off today than eight years ago? An extension of that question is will you be better off in the next four or eight years, if the current administration and policies, most importantly the political bickering of bipartisan politics, persists? Obviously, enough citizens answered negative even with some of the supporters for Hillary Clinton, including many American elites.
 
Trump's victory surprised not only the American elites and a large number of American citizens but also the entire world. The result is anger now vented through protests (hopefully temporary) and media's critical watch (hopefully fair) on Trump and his team's conduct and policy changes. Yes, Trump used the presidential executive orders to illustrate his desire to keep his campaign promises. The most controversial executive order was related to protecting the U.S. from terrorism, stopping entry of Muslims to the U.S. from seven Muslim countries for 90 days. The intention was clear and consistent with his campaign statements but the media's criticism was also valid to the extent that the execution of the order would affect unfairly the international students, foreign employees and legal immigrants coming to the U.S. from these seven countries. Trump certainly has his unique personality and manners in considering issues, making decisions, communicating with the public and taking actions. The American public and the media, mandated by the result of the extremely transparent 2016 presidential election process, must understand that they either have to accept him or try to offer advice to influence him. The most sensible and constructive way is to give him a chance, time and space, to learn the complexity and enormity of the US Presidency by expressing our concerns to him with the ‘Respect’ due to the Presidency. In this column we will do just that.
 
First, we would like to tell President Trump that many Americans agree with him. The United States is in a dilemma and the country is at a cross road even though the people may seem to be divided on many issues in different ways. The divisions all contribute to the American Dilemma we all are facing that is to continue to lead the world incurring debt or to focus on our domestic interest to make us great again. The U.S. is a rich nation with her economy becoming the largest in the world since 1920’s. The U.S. is also the superpower with unmatchable military strength. However, in the past two decades, the U.S. engaged in wars that drained her treasury mounted a national debt to $19 trillion today. Hence, the US economy is weakened in contrast to the rapid development of Asian countries, especially China. 
 
The decay of her once advanced infrastructure, dwindling of manufacturing industry, and burden of social welfare system compounded with political corruption and partisan division rendered the U.S. a stagnant economy with job loss, expense of unemployment welfare, and escalating healthcare cost. In addition, since the 9-11 terrorist attack, the US external military solution did not reduce but enhanced terrorism. National security becomes a major concern for the U.S. and a financial burden to the country. The necessary domestic measures in combating terrorism infringed her citizens' freedom and privacy and created tension among social and racial groups, distrust in government and media and unhappiness in families struggling with shrinking income. The failing diplomatic and military activities mounted her national debt and offered Americans a very dim future.
 
One of the crossroads of the US dilemma, continuing to lead the world with military strength, may be characterized with the traditional American Exceptionalism; whereas the other road, focusing on US economy and welfare of her people, may be characterized by a new American Exceptionalism (national economic excellence). This is a dilemma because evidence showed that it was difficult to do both well. Although this dilemma was not articulated clearly to the voters of the 2016 presidential election, the voters seemed to have appreciated it by aligning themselves behind "Make America Great Again" (Trump) more than behind "Together we are strong. Make America work."(Hillary). Even though the popular votes were close, Trump's slogan implying an admission of problems and a promise of drastic changes won the election.
 
Trump's team has to understand what does 'Great' in "Making America Great Again" mean to American people; their focus and emphasis cannot yoyo between the two crossroads. Military strength has a role to play but so does austerity in military budget to cut the waste and improve efficiency (and reduce oversea commitments perhaps) so the U.S. may put the money to make America great again. Earning money (trade), reducing national debt, rebuilding infrastructure, fixing healthcare system, stimulating industrial manufacturing capability, improving education and creating productive jobs are definitely in the 'Great' list. Foreign affairs and international relations must be dealt with care but cannot detract from the items on the 'Great' list. One may take a real estate case to illustrate the above point. When one is to renovate a home, the approach is very different from building a house for investors. The purpose of renovation of a 'home' is for the resident owner (American people) to have a great home by his definition of a great home not based on ideas attractive to others (foreigners).
 
In closing, we may cite an old political philosophy in ancient Chinese literature which is very appropriate for dealing with political dilemma. Citizens (people/voters) are like water. Water can float a boat (government/leader) as well as topple a boat all depending on the condition (mood) of the water. Calm water can keep a boat floating peacefully, say for people to fish in, but a turbulent water can topple a boat unexpectedly, for example, drowning the people on the boat. As the U.S. is at a crossroad and her citizens are divided, it is wise not to agitate the water to become turbulent but to focus on fulfilling the 'Great' list people wanted.


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​Chinese New Year of course follows the Chinese lunar (lunisolar) calendar. A month in Chinese calendar is 29 or 30 days whereas a month in Gregorian calendar is 30 or 31 days, hence the Chinese New Year will fall on different day each year on the Western Calendar, but it will always fall between January 21st and February 20th. The Chinese zodiac, rat, ox, tiger, rabbit, dragon, snake, horse, goat, monkey, rooster, dog, and pig, is the classification scheme that assigns an animal to each year in a repeating twelve-year cycle. The 12-year cycle of Chinese zodiac is an approximation to the 11.86-year cycle of Jupiter, the largest planet of the solar system. Its significance is that each animal and its reputed attributes are used in a scheme to plan future action of that year the animal represents in the 12-year cycle. This Chinese zodiac is not only popular in China but it and its few variations are still used in many Asian countries, including China, Vietnam, Burma, Korea, Japan, Mongolia, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand. The Buddhists all over the world also use this scheme.
 
This Chinese New Year occurs on January 28th, 2017, Saturday, is a rooster year. In Chinese astrology, each zodiac year is not just associated with an animal sign, but also one of five elements: Gold (Metal), Wood, Water, Fire, or Earth. This year is a Fire Rooster, please be aware that Fire Rooster is not turkey which has a negative connotation. People born in the Fire Rooster year are said to be trustworthy, with a strong sense of timekeeping and responsibility at work. Some Chinese astrologers say that the Fire Rooster year will be a powerful one, one should be decisive when it comes to moving forward and when confronting love, money and business, best be practical and take well-proven paths to ensure success, rather than taking risk. Naturally, not everyone will take seriously an astrological prediction on personal fate, of course even less so on national fate.
 
Rather than believing in predictions based on zodiac, we can review a few facts and make a rational forecast about economic outlook for the year of rooster at least for China and the U.S. China's economy has been slowing down in 2016 whereas the US economy is gingerly improving. Since tourism is a good indicator about economy, let's examine the data that is available and make a projection. First, we find that the travel business in China is quite vibrant. In the Gold Week (10/1-7/2016), the inbound trips  (domestic and international together) reached 589M people, a 12% increase over 2015 and a 24% rise over 2014, and in money terms reaching $478.2B RMB (2016) a 13.5% over $421B (2015). Moreover, the outbound travel reached 59.3M people (1st Half 2016) a 4.3% increase over 2015 with a 3.9% increase projected for 2nd Half of 2016. Another report by World Travel & Tourism Council, issued by CEO David Scowsill, has given detailed data on how travel and tourism contributed to national GDP for 184 countries, in which it has shown that China's travel and tourism ranks no. 2 (2015) in absolute size with a growth rate ranked no. 10, projected for 2016. 
 
Another piece of data can serve as a good indicator for the health of economy is business travel. According to a report published by Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), China's domestic business travel market, 95% of total, is $291.2B in 2015 (14.2% increase and projected 12.1% increase in 2016) whereas the U.S. business travel is $290.2B growing to $295.7B in 2016. At $291.2B, China has overtaken the U.S. as no. 1 business travel market. An earlier statistics compiled by Germany (World Travel Trend Report, WTTR) in 2015 showed that the ranking of top four countries in outbound trips as: 1. Germany, 2. The U.S., 3. The UK, and 4. China.  If ranked by dollars spent by outbound travels then they become: 1. The U.S., 2. China, 3. Germany, and 4. UK. One may expect that when 2016 data becomes available, China may have risen to no. 1 spot in outbound business travel and more certain in Fire Rooster year.
 
In the week of rooster year eve (1/27/2017), a number of events happened which might add significance to the Fire Rooster year. First, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May, visited the U.S. to have a meeting with President Trump. It was certain that they had a lot to discuss, strategic alliance, NATO, Brexit, world issues including China and Russia. The fact that PM Theresa May remembered in this week to take the time to make a special public TV appearance to wish China and her people a happy Fire Rooster year had to be considered as a positive thing for the year of Rooster and particularly for China. The UK has always been conducting a well thought out realist diplomacy; UK’s closeness to China perhaps motivated by China’s investment and Chinese tourists visiting UK but nevertheless positive for the world. PM May clearly stated in her well wish message that as permanent members of UN Security Council, China and UK will work together to solve world issues. In the eve of this Rooster year, China was forced to contemplate how to interpret and react to President Trump and his key cabinet members' hostile public remarks on China. President Trump signed an executive order to build a border wall between Mexico and the U.S. and expected Mexico to pay for it. It was no surprise that President Enrique Pena Nieto of Mexico was upset and cancelled his visit with Trump. How would the US-Mexico relation play out in the year of Fire Rooster is anybody's guess but clearly sliding down on the first day of Rooster year.
 
A New Year news that may possibly reduce the fireworks in the year of Rooster is also worth mentioning. The Commission of Mainland Affairs of Taiwan's Executive Yuan aired a video on TV wishing mainlanders a blessed year of Rooster. The fact that the entire staff of the commission were in the video making a warm greeting can only be interpreted as an olive branch extended by the Taiwan government in the midst of the hostile air between the U.S. and China created by the Trump team by suggesting that the One China policy may be scrapped. Since China regards the One China policy as the bed rock of the US-China relation and a redline defining China's core interest, any action crossing that line may cause the Mainland to take Taiwan by force. The warm greeting message offered by the Commission of Mainland Affairs publicly is definitely a nice gesture in the New Fire Rooster Year.
 
Finally, President Putin and President Trump deciding to have a phone conversation on the Chinese New Year day, January 28, Saturday,  may also be a significant event. This phone call may initiate a new relationship between the U.S. and Russia. This phone call may also set a new game rule related to managing international order with or without China. Hence, the year of Rooster will surely begin with suspense (an uncertain US China policy, a new US-China-Russia trilateral relationship), resetting Europe policy (UK Brexit and NATO fate) and tricky trade negotiations (with Mexico, China, Canada, South Korea, Japan and other trading partners to make America great again). The new US Administration seems to be overly anxious to stir up challenges before completing their orientation course, is that a sign of rooster crowing?!
 
Ifay Chang. Ph.D. Producer/Host, Community Education - Scrammble Game Show, Weekly TV Columnist, www.us-chinaforum.org . Trustee, Somers Central School District
 
 

As a nation, the U.S. only has 240 years (four Jiazi in Oriental calendar system) of history but she has emerged as the most powerful country in the world. Her success owes a lot to her forefathers' wisdom in constructing a constitution-based government system which allowed evolutionary improvement in governance comprising of Democracy for electing leaders, Justice for establishing a fair legal system and an Accountable Balanced Government for executing domestic and foreign policies. Of course, no political system is completely perfect; it is understandable that the U.S. despite of her success is facing considerable challenges as the human civilization is continuously evolving. The current US political landscape and the last presidential election are testimony to that. Just as valid as no political system is perfect, there may be other political system suitable for another country which will allow evolutionary improvement in governance suitable for her people to make that country great. China's current political system may be considered as such an example; a country experienced 180 years (three Jiazi) of political turmoil finally rises from devastating condition.
 
The modern history of China is a story of misery, a country ruled by a dynasty system inherited with thousands of years of glory but was tragically swept off her feet by vicious foreign powers happened to have embraced technology revolution, applied to naval force and military weaponry and adopted an expansionist foreign policy based on colonialism.   More than half the world was victimized by that colonialism, China despite of her size and rich culture had been a victim as well. China was nearly completely conquered and divided by the 'eight foreign power'. Taking the U.S. as the example to follow, Chinese people tried to transform herself through revolution, but not as lucky as the Americans, the Chinese people faced intervention and invasions from the Western powers and her belligerent neighbor Japan. 
 
It turned out that the U.S. had developed the Monroe doctrine (1823 - ) opposing foreign intervention in a weak nation (intended for west hemisphere initially). Extending from the Monroe philosophy, the U.S. considered to her interest to adopt the 'One China' policy in dealing with trades and diplomatic affairs with China. The U.S. opposed the other powers' approach of carving up China into pieces as their 'controlled' territories enjoying unfair trade privileges such as no tariffs. The U.S. took the initiative (Secretary John Hay, 9-6-1899) to request Russia, England, France, Germany, Italy and Japan to respect China as one nation and allow her to administer her own trade rules in China. This is known as 'Open China' policy. Its real impact beyond enforcing an orderly trade system in China was that it had also forced all the foreign powers in China to respect 'One China' and yielded to her sovereignty rights (for example tariff collection) over her own land, ports etc. Although, Japan later broke out her ambition to conquer China, John Hay's 'Open China' policy (declared effective on 3-20-1900 later reissued to all embassies in Beijing on 7-3-1900 when Chinese box rebellion drew military interference from the foreign powers, the foreign powers later occupied Beijing on 8-14 and John Hay issued another declaration on 10-22-1900 ) was essentially the 'One China' policy beneficial to China as well as to the U.S., forcing the foreign powers to show constraints towards China and to each other.
 
Fast forward, President Richard Nixon visited China on 2-21-1972, first US presidential visit to China since the communist PRC was established in 1949. The U.S. intended to be friend with the communist China during the Cold War against the Soviet Union. The U.S. signed the Shanghai Communiqué (1972) in which  'One China' policy was pledged, specifically, the Mainland and Taiwan being one China. The formal recognition of PRC did not occur till 1979 during Jimmy Carter's administration, but the 'One China' policy has since become the foundation of US-China relation followed by all US Administration therafter. The 'One China' policy has benefitted the U.S. in defeating the Soviet Union making her the only superpower in the world and it was beneficial to China for gaining entry to the US led world economy as well as obtaining steady economic development for nearly four decades. The collapse of the Soviet Union and moving a billion Chinese people above poverty line could be directly attributed to the 'One China' policy.
 
Now China is marching to be a great nation through her persistent hard work focusing on economic development. It is understandable that the U.S. feels being threatened in her world dominating position. However, as a nation achieved her superpower status under a constitution-based governing system believing in justice and fairness, she can not trash the values that she believed in and evolved to. The world has witnessed and embraced globalization not likely to be reversed by any unilateral action. The earth is facing the threat from nuclear proliferation and environmental challenges, no nation can maintain a superpower status forever at the expense of the Earth or without the cooperation of the world. The world must be managed in 'Harmony' not driven by 'Hegemony'. Realistically, the U.S. must maintain 'One China' policy not just for China's historical mandate but also for the security of the U.S. and the entire world. 
 
The real issue between the U.S. and China is the balance of trade which is the result of many factors but not ideology. As stated in the opening, there is no perfect political system and there is possible workable alternative system, China is pursuing her own and the U.S. must evolve her system to deal with challenges. To deal with trade issues, 'One China' policy is the bedrock for stability for China, the U.S. and the world. Abandoning 'One China' policy leads to chaos not only in China, in Asia but also disaster in the rest of the world. China has become a  major manufacturer and market place for the entire world. China must remain stable as one China for maintaining world order and world survival. Realizing such, the U.S. should never doubt her 'One China' policy which benefitted her and the world in the past and will continue benefiting her and the world in the future.
 
 

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