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World Leadership Requirement in A Bi-Polar or Multi-Polar World

3/30/2019

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Dr. Wordman
​
World order is maintained under interplay of properly balancing national security, core interests and foreign relations among nations. Historically, great nations with strong economy and military strength play a dominating role in leading the world. They resolve geopolitical issues and influence regional economical and political problems to maintain a healthy global economy and a peaceful world. In the process of managing world order, conflicts among great nations always exist; the existing and emerging powers will have their own perspectives of national security, core interests and foreign relations which often produce conflicts. The fact that over 193 sovereign nations having multiple races, numerous cultures and different social strata in wealth, classes, religion , sex and gender order all exist on Earth Planet, it is understandable that maintaining world order is a very complex and extremely challenging task for world leaders.
 
While continents are separated by vast oceans, the world is naturally divided into regions. When humans began to develop maritime technology and naval power, maritime trade became the economic force for great nations to expand and control the world. Great nations, focusing on their national (self) interest, often practice hegemony to expand their influence and to exert control over conquered land (nation) through colonialism. Such expansion naturally leads to competition and conflicts among great nations eventually causing wars between great powers, spreading to world wars. The WW I erupted and was confined in Europe but the WW II nearly spread over all continents lasting many years.
 
Post WW II, two great nations had emerged creating a ‘bi-polar’ world divided by ideology: capitalism and liberal democracy, valuing individual freedom especially economic freedom, versus socialism and communist governance, valuing communal equality especially favoring a socialist system. This confrontation essentially divided the world into two camps, one led by the U.S. and her allies including the NATO countries and the other led by the Soviet Union and her allies including the Warsaw pact. The bi-polar world did not erupt into another world war largely because the two leading countries each had piled up significant amount of nuclear arsenal capable of destroying each other and the world thus deterring each other from waging extensive war. The situation of ‘détente’ could not last forever because the continuous arms race required a continuous strong economy to sustain. Ultimately, the Soviet Union collapsed under the pressure of her failing economy. The world then transitioned to a ‘uni-polar’ world with the U.S. being the strongest superpower, economically and militarily.    
 
As the ‘uni-polar’ leader post Cold War, the U.S. indeed tried to be the world police to maintain world order. However, the world has advanced further in science, technology, manufacturing, infrastructure, transportation as well as communication (media) creating an inter-dependent but far more complex global world. The leadership required to manage this new world order must expect the existence and/or the emergence of other great nations and be prepared to deal with a world transitioning from a uni-polar to a bi-polar or a multi-polar world. The rise of China and the rejuvenating Russia are two competing great nations; Brazil, India and South Africa are also rising economic powers joining the existing G-7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States), now extending to G20. The U.S. as the leader of G-7 had no choice but to deal with the fast developing BRICS and G20.
 
As the world progressed continuously with advanced communication, manufacturing and technologies, the emerging nations with significant economic power will exert influence on the world stage. During this progress, unfortunately, the U.S. failed to discourage arms build-up and naively believed that her military strength will remain unmatched and be effective in keeping the ever more complex world in order. In reality, not only great nations such as Russia, India and China now possess nuclear weapons even small nations like Iran and North Korea have gained nuclear arsenal becoming nuclear club members capable of using nuclear weapon for bargaining. So in the multi-polar world, proliferation of nuclear weapon is a serious problem which will neutralize the U.S. military power as an effective force to police the world. The world events in the past decades showed us how ineffective it had been to resolve world issues using military force. To avoid a devastating nuclear war, the best we can hope for is that all nuclear powered nations will refrain from using nuclear weapon, and gradually and ultimately transform the whole world into a nuclear weapon free world.
 
Observing the current world events, one cannot help but worry about the U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. seems to be still adhering to a ‘uni-polar’ world model and trying very hard to maintain world order ignoring the fact that the world is transitioning to a multi-polar world. In such a world, economic and military powers are necessary but not sufficient to manage the world; the world leadership needs additional political power, which is political wisdom, people and nation governing experience, geopolitical knowledge and inter-nation diplomatic skills backed by economic and military strength. The leaders of the rising nations are there in different ways through different trainings in different political systems. The U.S. is proud to have the most open and democratic political system to elect her national leaders. Unfortunately, the US election process is corrupted by money; the leaders elected are great political orators, media manipulators and fund raisers but not necessarily possessing the above cited political skills to deal with foreign policy and world issues. Even candidates with administrative and foreign relation experience are not scrutinized enough by the election process to ascertain that they have the political power, integrity and a clear vision of the complex multi-polar world.        
 
The Russian leader, Putin, and the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, have risen to their supreme political positions with a very different scrutiny. Their ‘career’ experiences speak volume of their political wisdom, geopolitical knowledge and diplomatic skills. Russia’s rapid annexation of Crimea and China’s long-term ‘one belt one road’ vision of world co-development plan demonstrated the skillful play of their political power. In contrast, Clinton-Obama’s Pivot to Asia policy based on a legacy strategy of containment created more tension and little purpose. The non-cooperative Okinawa and problematic Taiwan make the island chain ineffective to sustain an island chain around China. Anticipating the rising of a multi-polar power structure in Asia, the U.S. needs to develop a new Asia/China policy to collaborate with the multi-polar powers to maintain a more evenly balanced power in Asia rather than creating an unstable Asia eventually dragging the U.S. to an Asian war. The current Trump administration had the opportunity to develop a new China policy but opted to launch a trade war which will not yield any long-term benefit to the U.S. and the world stability.
The current South China Sea (SCS) saga is clearly orchestrated by the U.S. under the containment strategy which heightened the tension there and prompted China to fortify small islands into potential defense bases as unsinkable carriers thus creating an opposite effect to containment. So far the U.S. and China had done correctly in SCS was that they both appreciated the importance of transparency in declaring their military actions to avoid accidents – a necessary behavior to show a nation’s wisdom in world politics. The best, of course, is to engage China as a strategic partner (rather than an enemy with no real cause) to manage the stability in Asia. Broadly collaborate with China to take advantage of her huge market and large population not only can ease the trade deficit but also reduce the military burden the U.S. is maintaining in Asia. The lack of clarity and transparency on how and why the U.S. pivot to Asia Pacific matters to her national security and core interests and the inconsistency of her foreign policy treating China as enemy and Japan do not make the U.S. an effective world leader. In world politics, if you want war, you keep secret plans, if you want peace; you make the foreign policy transparent.
 
Assuming that the U.S. is not planning for war in Asia, it is very important for the U.S. to recognize the emerging multi-polar world. To maintain peace in Asia and world stability, we urge the U.S. and China to have a dialogue to develop a ‘transparent’ strategy to gain trust, to reduce tension and to work collaboratively for mutual benefits, world peace, and prosperity.




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Asian Americans’ Dual Responsibilities (II)

3/23/2019

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Dr. Wordman
​
Asian Americans (AAs) are not only a fastest growing group of minority but also have the highest educational qualifications among America’s major racial categories. Chinese and Indians have over 50% of their population having bachelor’s degree versus 27% for all Americans according to the 2010 census. By 2012 statistics, 61% of all Asian adult immigrants have a bachelor or higher level of education. AAs are the largest group on campuses of some of the best universities in the United States, for example, 28% at MIT and 39% at UC Berkeley. AAs have been regarded as a "model minority," with high achievement in school and doing well overall, particularly at the top of the curve. AAs enjoy also high achievement in employment with 45% of AAs in management, professional, and related occupations, a figure that is much higher than the same categories in the total population. More than one third of AA families earn $15,600 more than the national median income for all households. So AAs are making a significant contribution to the U.S. economy, undoubtedly a key support to making America great again.

However, despite of the hard working culture and mental drive for high achievement, a bamboo ceiling seems to be hanging over AAs as exhibited by some statistics. First, AAs’ average life-time earnings are $400,000 less than that of Caucasians which is one convincing data supporting the bamboo ceiling. Second, less than 2% of AAs fills the top corporate C-level positions in Fortune 500 companies; in contrast the number of women leading companies (CEO) in the Fortune 500 has grown to 6.4 percent in 2017 from 2.6 percent a decade ago (but has dropped to 4.2% in Fortune's 2018 list). Third, discrimination practice in college admission against AAs, especially in Ivy League schools (as claimed in a lawsuit against Harvard) is extremely disturbing to AAs. What is more alarming to AAs is that the current U.S. Asia Policy and China Policy are bringing more discriminations against AAs, for example, like restricting admission of Asian immigrants to the U.S. (reducing visa quota), discouraging Asian Immigrants/Americans to pursue hi-tech career (not hiring them in R&D positions) and bringing charges against AAs for suspicion of espionage (apparent increase in cases and false charges). The above data and facts alone should make AAs realize that they have a responsibility to themselves to pay attention to the U.S. Asia and China policies and make their views publically known.

The AAs, came to the U.S. and stayed as immigrants, were motivated to do so because of two fundamental reasons. One is that the U.S. has provided opportunities for work and wealth creation (based on US stable and healthy economy) and the other is that the American Constitution respects individual’s freedom and rights (the American value). These two reasons are vitally important not only to Asian immigrants but also to all Americans/immigrants. Therefore, the AAs like all Americans have a citizen’s responsibility to safeguard the American value and demand their government to maintain a healthy economy offering sufficient employment opportunities. In today’s globally interconnected environment, the U.S. economy is intertwined with other economies, Asia (GDP $30,220B, 2018 IMF), N. America ($23,550B), EU ($21,820B), S. America ($3,610B) and Africa ($2,330B). The U.S. trade with the five key Asian regions already amounts to 27.6% of her total world trade with a breakdown as follows: China (Total 15.5%, Export 7.3%, Imports 21.1%), Japan (T 5.1%, E 4.5%, I 5.6%), South Korea (T 3.1%, E 3.3%, I 2.9%), India (T 2.1%, E 1.9%, I 2.2%) and Taiwan (T 1.8%, E 1.8%, I 1.8%). The above data shows that Asia has the largest GDP and is the biggest trading partner of the U.S., thus, it should be obvious to AAs that maintaining peace in Asia would be beneficial to the U.S. and the world. Therefore, it is easy to conclude that AAs, for their own as well as for all Americans’ benefit, have a dual responsibility in this world, that is to keep America great with a sustainable healthy economy and to keep Asia in peace so that the Asian economy and the world economy will be stable.

The current trade war initiated by the U.S. against China is obviously damaging the economies of the U.S., China and the entire Asia even the entire world. As we discussed in part I, the AAs may have a different view on the current US-China conflict which is not revealed by the U.S. mainstream media. The AAs’ input was hardly sought or considered especially on the assumption that China is destined to be the enemy of the U.S. and Asia must be interfered by the U.S. for Asia’s sake. No Asian American wants to see Asia to become a battle ground like the Middle East. The AAs’ voice and their opinions must be reported to influence the U.S. administration’s policy making. The AAs must make efforts to reach out to the think-tanks on the issue why it is beneficial to the U.S. to keep Asia in peace rather than creating and engaging in wars in Asia.
 
Unfortunately, very few avenues are made available to AAs to express their concerns in foreign policy. Recently the Asia Society - Center on US-China Relations (Asia Society was founded in 1956 by John D Rockefeller III, initially established to promote greater knowledge of Asia in the U.S., today it is a global institute with a mission to promote mutual understanding between Asia and the U.S.) in partner with UC San Diego -School of Global Policy and Strategy had made a study: ‘Course Correction: Toward an Effective and Sustainable China Policy’. The subject is important and timely. However, the entire task force group does not have a single Asian American scholar. It is no surprise that its conclusions and recommendations reflect only the view on what changes in Asia and between the U.S. and China were observed rather than trying to understand in depth why and how Asian countries, particularly China, had changed. It is the rate of change that has frightened the U.S. and caused rash reactions even though the present differences can be traced and understood.
 
The task force should have investigated what policies have triggered reactionary opposing policies which then in turn triggered further reactionary policy changes. Without making a thorough analysis on the causality relationship of the US Asia/China policies and the China/Asia US policies, one can not suggest any sound course correction. The Asian Americans with their close attachment to Asia and the U.S. can offer a deeper insight to why Asia has changed and why China has changed so fast as well as the reactionary nature of the past policy changes. Targeting China as an enemy rather than a strong healthy competitor is definitely resulted from the legacy strategy used in the Cold War days. Asia is a very different continent, more countries, more people, more diverse culture and a long history available for studies and references. The Asian philosophies are far broader and deeper than the ‘Thucydides trap’ theory which is apparently influencing the U.S. national security strategy. AAs are assets in the U.S. for understanding Asia, its culture and philosophies as well as the changes happened in the past century. Seeking AAs’ input and making an understanding of the cascading policy reactions, the U.S. will be able to make a right Course Correction leading to China and Asian countries to correct their policies. Whining, complaining and blaming the Asian/China changes to unfair competition practices are too naïve not a productive solution to eliminate the economic competition from China/Asia because of their people, culture and drive for a better life. According to a Rand 2018 report, China’s behavior over the past two decades does not mark her as an opponent to the post war international order.  I urge all AAs carry their dual responsibility seriously by speaking out thus helping the U.S. to make a course correction which will make America great again and maintain Asia in peace.



  
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Asian Americans’ Dual Responsibilities (Part I)

3/16/2019

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Dr. Wordman

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Asian Americans (AAs) consist of people residing in the U.S. coming from or having ancestry from the Far East, Southeast Asia and Indian Subcontinent. However, historically the population of AAs was insignificant in number in 19th century or earlier. In early 20th century, AAs were chiefly Chinese immigrants who came to the U.S. as laborers working in the railroad construction and mining industry. They were referred as coolies and seriously and unfairly discriminated by the white Americans. Despite of the discriminating laws (1920-1940’s) more Asians immigrated to the U.S. from India, Japan, Philippines, and South China. Post WW II and after the abolishment of discrimination laws against Asians and especially after the elimination of quota limitation placed on Asian regions (1965), the population of Asian immigrants increased and diversified to include people with ancestry from various parts of Asia. Realizing the productivity of AAs, the U.S. opened the immigration door to Asians especially to Asian students. By the last census in 2010, the population of Asian AAs rose to 17,320,856 and grew to 22,408,454 in 2017 reaching 6.9% of the total American population, becoming the fastest growing minority group in the U.S. They are generally hard working, mainly distributed in the following states: California, 5.6M, NY, 1.6M, Texas 1.1M, NJ, 795K, Hawaii, 781K, Illinois, 669K, Washington, 604K, Florida, 573K, Virginia, 522K, and Pennsylvania, 403K, making significant contribution to the economy of the U.S.

Practiced in the US Census, people with origins or ancestry in the Far East, Southeast Asia, and the Indian subcontinent are classified as part of the Asian race whereas those with origins or ancestry in North Asia (Russians, Siberians), Central Asia (Kazakhs, Uzbeks, Turkmens, Tajiks, Kyrgyz, etc.), Western Asia (Diaspora Jews, Turks, Persians, Kurds, Assyrians, West Asian Arabs, Afghans, etc.), and the Caucasus (Georgians, Armenians, Azeris, etc.) are classified as "white" or "Middle Eastern". For the purpose of this article, it is not necessary to exclude any American coming from Asia or having ancestry from any part of Asia as AAs. In fact, the author agrees with the objection voiced by many AAs that it is unnecessary and somewhat discriminating to further subdividing the AAs, not the Whites, into categories designating smaller regions in Asia. One of the reasons for such objection is the fact that some Ivy League schools practice discrimination in their college admission process against certain groups of AAs. Further defining AAs in subgroups only help such college discrimination, yet AAs are more educated and paying more taxes per capita in the American society.

The U.S. is a country of immigrants, progressing rapidly over two and half century with the influx of capable and productive immigrants. The immigrants are drawn by the liberal democracy and equal justice principles the United States Constitution proclaims. The U.S. had a number of wars of aggression against her neighbors during her early stage, but in the two World Wars, the U.S. stood by the side of justice defending and helping her allies, especially in the WW II when her Allies were attacked by the imperialist Germany in Europe and Imperial Japan in Asia. In the end, the Allies won the war and the U.S. became the strongest nation in the world. Her citizens, several generations of immigrants, are very proud of their country for standing up for justice and liberty and being a defender of democracy. This immigrant American spirit, built on the principles of ‘American can do’, freedom, liberty and human rights was vivid till 1990, the time the Soviet Union collapsed. 

The collapse of the Soviet Union made the U.S. the superpower and the de facto leader of the world, there began a serious change in the U.S. The nation developed divisions, not just bipartisan politics, but divisions on many issues, war, fiscal and social issues damaging the fundamental principle of democracy - majority rules (minorities should yield to the majority so that policies can be established and executed smoothly). The U.S. government became less competent and less effective; the American society became more fragmented and more selfish focusing on applying liberal principles on self-centered interest making the country stagnant in progress in infrastructure, social welfare and nation building. The U.S. economy has transformed, abandoning human and labor intensive manufacturing industries and adopting capital intense financial industries letting printing money, manipulating currency and debt carry the day. American economy drops in percentage of world economy. American foreign policy turns to a selfish hypocritical behavior – saying one thing and doing the other. Take Europe for example, despite of the vanishing Warsaw pact, the U.S. encouraged the growth of NATO pushing member recruitment and more military and weapon deployment. Take Africa, the U.S. engaged with many African countries and involved with their governments but none had become a shining example of liberal democracy with prosperity. In contrast, China’s investment in Africa gained more African support in the U.N. In the Middle East, the U.S. policy caused prolonged wars with no peace insight which certainly did not benefit the people in the Middle East especially the countries blessed with rich oil deposit.  

The U.S. Asia Policy is of concern to AAs. Instead of taking the collapse of the Soviet Union as an opportunity to rebuild Asia, the U.S. policy tends to divide Asia and create tension. The U.S. insisted on dividing the two Koreas rather than letting them unite and  focus on economic development like the Germany did. Now, the world is facing another nuclear threat from North Korea (NK). If the U.S. media would do an honest survey on AAs (especially Korean Americans), not many would believe that NK would ever shoot a nuclear missile to the U.S., not today, never mind a decade or two ago. Asking any Japanese Americans, not many would believe that NK would shoot a nuclear missile to Japan either. People know that regional nuclear war has no winner but committing suicides. What is wrong to let Asian countries to focus on economic development and reach a balance of power on their own? Ask any AAs, how many would believe that only the U.S. can and must maintain peace in Asia, with her current Asia Policy? With China, India, Japan and Russia rising at their own rate, there would be a natural balance of power keeping peace; perhaps the natural course would be better than an outside country interfering and holding the Asian countries with strings to play a balancing act. 

The AAs have a serious dual responsibility in this world simply because they would love to see that the U.S. (their home) and Asian countries (their motherland) in peace with each other. As an Asian American, one must be honestly assessing America’s Asia policy. The assumption that any Asian country would attack the U.S. today is based on a legacy theory with no concrete evidence. The legacy theory targeted Russia as the enemy, but it took two to tango in arms race. Russia has been wakened since the 90’s, but the U.S. military strategists switch target to China and NK. Must the U.S. have a target enemy to maintain her super military power? Assuming that any Asian country is destined to have a war with the U.S. or with its neighbor extending damage to the U.S. is a questionable logic. Japan was the aggressor in Asia attacked other Asian countries prolonged WW II but Japan is now the strongest ally of the U.S. Currently, the U.S. is walking away from globalization, pulling out of disarmament agreement with Russia and increasing military pressure in South China Sea. Where is the logic? The U.S. can leave Asia alone and concentrate on making America great again, but she is not. The AAs have a responsibility to themselves to understand the U.S. Asia Policy and steer it to the right direction. (To be continued in part II)

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Ifay Chang. Ph.D. Producer/Host, Community Education - Scrammble Game Show, Weekly TV Columnist, www.us-chinaforum.org . Trustee, Somers Central School District.
 
 

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