April 27-28, 2018 may go down in history as a very significant weekend in Asia with consequences impacting the whole world. Coincidentally, on this weekend, the two most populated countries in the world, China and India, will have an informal summit meeting between the two strong leaders, President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi while the Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un of North Korea (NK) is meeting President Moon Jae-In of South Korea (SK), both meetings expecting positive results.
 
The two Koreas were separated since the Korean War in the 1950’s (6/25/1950- 7/27/1953). The Korean War involved the United States and China. The U.S. adamantly practiced the anti-communism foreign policy by resisting the spread of the Soviet Union led communism in Asia and Europe. China, as a communist country heavily depended on Russia for aids in her recovering from WW II, had little choice but engaged in Korean War. The Russian Army would willingly cross the Chinese northern border to fight the Americans in Korea Peninsula if China would not help NK. China did help NK and paid a hefty price in human casualties. The Korean War ended with a truce in 1953, dividing Korea in two by an artificial line known as 38 degree line. The truce, not a peace treaty, was signed on July 27, 1953 by Lt. Gen. William Harrison representing the U.S. and United Nation Command and Gen. Nam I’ll, representing Korea People’s Army and Chinese People’s Volunteers. In 1954, During the Geneva Conference, Chinese Foreign Minister Zhou En-Lai proposed to sign a peace treaty for the Korean Peninsula, but the U.S. Secretary of State, john Foster Dulles rejected it, a big mistake leading to today’s nuclear threat. SK and NK were eventually admitted to the U.N. on August 8th, 1991.
 
The ideological divide in two Koreas persisted seven decades. SK is a constitutional republic consisting of an executive branch led by an elected President and an elected legislative branch with elected legislators. SK’s road to democracy has not been smooth as exhibited by the fact that several presidents were either assassinated or murdered or jailed throughout the seven decades. SK remained as a strategic partner of the U.S. having US military presence of 23,468 (2017) American soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines (USFK) which has Title 10 authority; meaning that USFK is responsible for organizing, training and equipping U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula so that forces are agile, adaptable and ready. Recently, the U.S. installed the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in response to NK’s nuclear threat. This has not only annoyed China, Russia and NK but also raised protests in SK, a possible trigger for NK and SK to hold peace meetings today.
 
Different from China who has departed from the Soviet style of communism since the 1960’s, The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) was established in 1948 when the United States and the Soviet Union divided control of the peninsula after World War II. NK has maintained an authoritarian secretive communist system with present Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un inherited the leadership from his father, Kim Jong-Il. NK pursued nuclear weapon development as a leverage for maintaining security of the regime. NK’s success in long range nuclear missile development not only has caused concern of SK, Japan, and the U.S. but also irked China since China has always advocated a nuclear free Korea Peninsula.
 
NK’s nuclear threat has been a thorn on the north side of Pacific causing uneasiness all over the world. The recent development of the leaders of two Koreas meeting each other at the military demarcation line is welcoming News. The two leaders stepped over the line to symbolize a visit to the other side and they planted a tree of peace. Both leaders showed warmth and worked hard to exhibit their sincerity towards the goal of achieving denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula and signing a peace agreement to permanently end the Korean War. Although the two rivals may still have a long way to unravel their issues, this meeting really opened a new era despite of some rhetoric still appeared in the U.S. media. President Trump seems to be genuinely welcoming this development. As an American citizen desiring peace, I don’t mind President Trump claiming the credit for promoting this historical event. Going a step further, I would even encourage The Nobel Prize Committee to award Kim, Moon, Trump and Xi a Nobel Peace Prize, if a denuclearization and peace treaty could be achieved prior to or at the Kim-Trump meeting in May or June.
 
During the same weekend, the Chinese President Xi and Indian Prime Minister Modi are meeting at Wuhan, China for an informal Summit. India and China are regarded as frenemies, a word presumably created to describe a relationship of friendly enemies. Narendra Damodardas Modi (67) was the Chief Minister of Gujarat from 2001-2014 and became Prime Minister since 2014, a strong leader standing for reelection in 2019. At the request of Modi for a friendly get-together, the two leaders agreed to meet over the weekend at a relaxing spot in China favored by Chairman Mao. Although the meeting is informal with no official agenda, the leaders are expected to touch a few issues in a relaxed informal manner reminiscing Xi’s visit to Modi’s home in Gujarat in 2014, sitting on a swing with Modi.
 
In 2017 China-India relations took a dive, when a border braw happened at Doklam with military stand-off lasting two and half months. China was building a road at the border with Bhutan also nearing China-India border. India was overly concerned with the Chinese influence over Himalayan states and South Asia in general. The stand-off was resolved before the BRICS Summit in September of 2017 in Beijing, but the mistrust between the two nations deepened, nevertheless, on top of India’s boycotting the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Summit in May in Beijing where even Japan and the U.S. attended as well as India’s joining the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) with the U.S., Japan and Australia which is another contributed factor to the cooling of relations between the two nations.
 
In the 1980’s India’s and China’s GDP were comparable, but now China’s GDP is about five times of India. Out of the $84 billion trade between the two nations today, China enjoys a trade surplus about $15 billion. India is concerned with this trade deficit but the economic cooperation is hampered by political relationship such as the above issues as well as by India’s attitude towards Dalai Lama and China’s position regarding designating Jarsh-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist.
 
Over all, the mistrust between India and China, although long rooted but is not irreparable. If India and China, the two largest nations in Asia, could cooperate, it would bring more benefits to the two nations, Asia and the whole world. At this juncture, the U.S. is initiating a tariff war on trade; it creates a tremendous opportunity for India and China to focus on trade and economic cooperation. The political issues might be hardened by further deeds of mistrust but could also be resolved by mutual benefits derived from economic cooperation. Hopefully, at the Wuhan informal summit, Modi and Xi will have a heart to heart conversation removing the ‘frenemies’ image and be friend with each other for the benefit of the two largest nations on earth and their people.
 


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The reason that this author has not devoted much space in this column to discussions of the Middle East (M.E.) issues is not because of a lack of problems there; rather too many messy problems with no solutionsin sight to inspire meaningful discussions. The author subscribes to several newsletters and publications covering the M.E. issues and the U.S. involvement there. The nearly daily bombardments of 'hot news' on M.E. just add frustration, frustration and frustration. As a 'senior' columnist (serving American citizen’s duty to understand and interpret the U.S. foreign and domestic policies), the continuous evolving M.E. crises are just too complex to be written in short columns. The U.S. could not get a bi-partisan endorsed long-term M.E. strategy nor an all citizen supported U.S. military engagement there. Russia was just eager to counter the U.S. influence in the M.E. whether or not the U.S. plan was working. 
 
In today's column, entitled, ‘Is China's Middle East Effort A Wishful Dream, Risky Investment or Genuine Peace Plan?’, is really triggered by China's recent string of actions (like in Chinese Wei Qi, a set of pieces strategically placed will eventually reveal the player's intent and likelihood of a winning pattern) that seem to shed a light of hope in resolving the complex M.E. issues. However, China's M.E. effort appears to be part of an ambitious plan, whose vision is exhibited by the One Belt and One Route initiative (OBOR, I prefer to translate the Chinese word '路' to ‘route’ not ‘road’ because I think the word 'route' is broader in scope involving strategic and directional planning than the word 'road'). But its hidden part, not yet so obvious, could be regarded as the M.E. Peace Plan. It is this plan the author wishes to discuss and analyze - whether China’s plan is just a wishful thinking, a risky investment or a real hopeful peace plan for solving the M.E. problems?
 
The problems in the M.E. should be first summarized in terms of key conflicts to set the background for our discussion on China’s M.E. Effort (Readers can review these conflicts in Wikipedia for details thus only brief summary is given here):

  1. The M.E. problems in the past 100 years are due to oil resources and geopolitical interests, dictator/regime changes, Arab Springs, racial and religious conflicts and rise of terrorism.

  2. The conflicts among UK-US and Russia in the M.E. (rooted in regional domination and regime control have created Israel-Palestine confrontation, the Gulf War and Iraq crisis, Iran regime change tilting to Islam fundamentalism, an Iranian nuclear threat and the Islamic State (ISIS).

  3. Externally influenced Arab Spring had affected regime changes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya (Al-Qaddafi), and Yemen and forced Morocco and Jordan to amend constitution and government reform.

  4. Arab Spring in Syria created Free Syrian Army and caused civil war with Russia supporting the regime and Saudi-US supporting the rebel.

  5. The current M.E. problems are extensions of the past troubles accentuated by i). historical Arab-Israel conflict, ii). Racial Suuni-Shiite rivalry, and iii). threat of Islam in terms of intolerance and terrorism.
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  6. Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or Iraq and Levant (ISIL), a Sunni Jihadist group claiming religious authority over all Muslims, is savvy with social media for fundraising and recruitment resulting in its expansion, continued instability in the M.E. and a rise in terrorism.  
 
The above problems produced M.E. turmoil, the spread of M.E. refugees to other countries and terrorist events throughout the world begging for solution but none exists. The new Administration of the U.S. is retreating from her past ineffective efforts of maintaining peace in the M.E. and now focusing on America First. China on the other hand seems to be stepping up to the challenges of solving the M.E. issues with new diplomatic and economic actions applied to the M.E. and Muslim countries. China has always paid attention to the problems in the Muslim world since she has a significant population of Muslim citizens of her own. During the Cold War, China was a poor developing country; her attention to her Muslim populated regions was more policies than grand projects due to limited resources. Post Cold War, China has maintained a high economic growth rate to eventually become the world’s second largest economy. Thus, China’s attention to her Muslim populated regions has been heightened with numerous infrastructure and economic developments in electrification, highway projects, high speed rail lines, water resources, mining, desert greening and numerous agriculture and industrialization programs. The 9-11-2001 terrorists attack on World Trade Center in New York might have alerted China about the rise of terrorism originated from the M.E. but the activities of Arab Spring a decade later perhaps really had stimulated China into developing a comprehensive strategy to deal with the Muslim world and the M.E.
 
The following developments (and achievements) in China’s foreign policy regarding Muslim countries and the M.E. lend strong evidence to China’s genuine attempt to develop a peace plan for the M.E. and for her own benefits:

  1. China-Malaysia bilateral trade shows China being Malaysia’s second largest trading partner (2016, $23.7B versus $27.6B, Singapore 1st place, China being first place seven years prior) and Malaysia being China’s largest trading partners among ASEAN nations. China is also the largest trading partner of Indonesia (2016, $16.8B versus $16.2B, the U.S. 2nd place)

  2. China published her Arab Policy Paper on January 13, 2016 prior to President Xi’s first M.E. trip (1/19-24/2016) visiting Saudi Arabia (elevating bilateral ties to comprehensive strategic partners, e.g. setting up Chinese drone manufacturing in Saudi Arabia, Saudi King visited China on 3/15-18/2017 witnessing $65B business deals), Egypt and Iran just days after UN’s nuclear-related sanctions on Iran were lifted following Teheran scaling back its nuclear program. Xi had timed the trip for an opportune time to broker a peace relationship between Riyadh and Teheran. His speech at the Arab League in Cairo stated clearly China’s honorable position: “instead of looking for a proxy, seeking any sphere of influence, and filling the vacuum, China will promote peace talks, call friends to join OBOR initiative and build a cooperative partnership network for win-win opportunities”.

  3. China established her first foreign military base at Djbouti, located in the Horn of Africa. China and Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a major initiative (2013) related to OBOR; its infrastructure, energy, Gwadar port and many other projects will not only benefit China and Pakistan but will also benefit Iran, Afghanistan, India and Central Asia. China opens OBOR to Saudi and Iran to reduce tension and create cooperation. China will build high-speed rail from Xinjiang to Tehran (Shiite) passing through Sunni Muslim Central Asia countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan). China also promotes Iran membership in Shanghai Cooperative Organization which other Muslim country members (Sunni) have joined.

  4. China has always maintained supportive position regarding establishment of a Palestine state and a good economic, military and technological links with Israel. China had invited both Palestine and Israel leaders to visit China with the intent to play an honest broker role to achieve a peaceful solution between them.
 
From the above discussion, we can appreciate the complexity of the M.E. problems and China’s strategic effort in promoting peace for the M.E. China has made tremendous investments in the Muslim world. China’s approach of being “Friends to All” and “Enemy to None” may be a viable new alternative strategy to bring the M.E. to peace. The U.S. and Russia should welcome China’s effort and the world would benefit if China’s effort could succeed in the end.