The 2016 election was a 'crazy' one which had produced a dark horse winner, Donald Trump, and surprised the Party bosses and politic elites of both Democrats and Republicans and most astonishingly, the mass media. Trump won the election but not that many friends. The new President's behavior and performance and his Administration Team's fast turnover have prompted many people to look to 2020 Presidential election already, particularly the tarnished angry journalists in the media, the discredited pros in American party politics and the big presidential election influencers on both the winner side and the loser side. Therefore, it is not too early for this column to talk about the next Presidential election in 2020.
 
Trump was the winner in 2016 but the Republican Party could not claim the credit for it. Trump never represented the Republican Party machinery. In fact, the Party machine was against Trump from the start until he won the primary. The feud between Trump and the party hierarchy continued even after Trump was inaugurated into the White House. The Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus only served 189 days as Trump's Chief of staff in the White House. Priebus left White House with his used roller-deck of Republican names. This of course does not mean Trump now has the Republican Party in his control nor the other way around leaving the Republican Party in a fuzzy state.
 
Trump won on his slogan, Make America Great Again. But to some extent (to some Trump supporters and some Trump haters) this was interpreted as 'Make White America Great Again'. There was the 'flirting' relationship between the white supremacist groups such as the KKK and Trump during the campaign. The recent racial incidence in Charlottesville had highlighted that vague relationship. The President took a neutral position of slapping hands of both sides and the white supremacists seemed to want to take credit for Trump's 'right leaning' immigration policy even his repeal of Obama' executive order expanding Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), a policy concerning allowing about 1.7 million illegal immigrant children to stay in this country. The Charlottesville racial incidence may have cost Steve Bandon's job, but the mass liberal media seem to want us to believe that the ‘flirting’ relationship is really a ‘love’ relationship. How true is it?
 
The Republican Party had a large number of candidates for the 2016 Presidential election and most of the party candidates were taking a 'right' position leaning a little towards the center but Trump never followed the 'party' direction. Hence, the Republican Party's campaign position was a fuzzy one to the voters. Likewise, the Democratic Party's position also became fuzzy because Hillary Clinton started more from a central position to appease the donors associated with Wall Street and its fat cats but forced to move more to the left by the liberal Sanders movement. So in the 2016 election, the two parties both gave voters a fuzzy image and the competition became Trump versus Clinton in 'trust' issue and the result sided with Trump because he correctly recognized the Angry American sentiments and essentially he was an outsider of the American party system and Washington politics.
 
Looking towards 2020, even though the Democrat Party has not emerged with a definite contender for the Presidency against Trump, there is a significant undercurrent that we must recognize and track. Sanders mounted an impressive campaign with a socialistic agenda in the 2016 Presidential election to the point he threatened the expected sure-win nomination of Hillary Clinton. Sanders’ messages resonated with the 'Democratic Socialists' who share a far left ideology. Will the American socialists mount a force in 2020? Joining the Democrats? Will the angry American Right who formed a movement behind Trump in 2016 regroup for him in 2020? Strengthening the Republic Party? May be, both may be a plausible scenario since both Democrat Party and Republican Party had not only lost the 2016 Presidential election but also the loyalty of their party members leaving both parties in a fuzzy state.
 
Recently, John Nichols, a writer and a pioneering political blogger, wrote a long article in theNation.com, entitled, America Has a Long and Storied Socialist Tradition - DSA Is Reviving It. This article gave a brief history of American Socialists from the turn of the 20th century. He wrote about the biennial convention of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), held in Chicago in the first weekend of August 2017, and quoted the DSA National Director, Maria Svart, "the DSA gathering is the largest in an era. The organization's membership has tripled. A new poll suggests that 37% of American adults prefer socialism to capitalism. " Nichols, a very productive writer, is the author of a best-selling biography of former vice president Dick Cheney, Dick: The Man Who is President (New Press) among other books and a forthcoming book, Horsemen of the Trumpocalypse: A Field Guide to the Most Dangerous People in America (Nation Books this fall). His observation in the above referenced article, in my opinion, should not be casually cast away.
 
As Nichols described, The American democratic socialism had a history in Wisconsin and even had socialists running for the U.S. Presidency in the early 20th century. The Democrat Party stole the socialists' thunder and marginalized the American socialists through Franklin Roosevelt with the New Deal, but the American socialists never disappeared entirely. In the last Presidential election, Sanders brought the American socialism to live again. His liberal messages energized the young people throughout American colleges. His movement in 2016 built an organization, will this organization merge formally with democratic socialist Americans in 2020? A Third Party Candidate? Very likely, if one believes what the anti-Trump media are saying and plotting.
 
Post WW II, the Soviet style communism has made a deep dent in socialism since communism embraces socialistic principles. Thus anti-communism had often spilled over to anti-socialism. The U.S. as the world leader of anti-communism and promoter of capitalism essentially forced American socialists into hibernation. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989 and the rapid rise of China's economy in the past three decades gave testimony to the success of hybrid socialism and capitalism over communism or pure socialism. The movement of Sanders and the revival of DSA perhaps should not surprise anyone. The issue is that the American public is used to the two-party system and their election mechanism making the entry of a third party candidate difficult. From 2016 to 2020, we should take the lesson from how the two party systems malfunctioned in 2016 and how fuzzy their ideology had become depending on ‘who was the Presidential candidate running a well-funded campaign’. Money had made party ideology fuzzy.
 
Although we are still three years away from the next Presidential election, it is not too early for American citizens to sharpen their observations and track the two undercurrents of political movement so the voters will not be fooled again by the political pundits and the lying media. We must avoid another fuzzy election in 2020. It is time for American political party members to think and vote independently to define a clear and suitable ideology or platform for 2020!
 



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Trump’s presidential campaign and his victory to a large extent banked on the ‘America First’ message which resonated with voters frustrated with declining US prestige on the world stage, stagnating US economy and disappearing Jobs thus quality of life. The ineffectiveness of US government under an impotent or paralyzed bipartisan Congress induced American citizens to demand a change. Trump, being an outsider of Washington DC, has chosen the strategy to blame the country’s problems to incompetency of the previous administrations and delivered the most inciting campaign rhetoric calling for policy changes in defense (reversing the declining defense budget and strength), diplomacy (employing unpredictable actions and negotiations to get results), trade (tearing up existing agreements and renegotiate in favor of the U.S.), environment (retreating from international commitments on environmental control) and immigration (building American ‘Great Wall’ to stop illegal immigrants and overhauling immigration laws). Trump won the election as a dark horse over nearly a dozen finger-pointing politicians with little exciting proposals other than Sanders’ unreasonable proposal of granting free tuition for all college education, which energized some young people for obvious reason.
 
It is perfectly understandable that the Trump Administration in its first year or so is focusing on making visible deliverables on Trump’s campaign promises whether his team had completely understood the complex issues at hand or developed thoroughly considered solutions for the problems. Recently, Trump announced a set of orders to place tariff and quota on imports based upon the recommendation of the U.S. Trade Representative (on wash machines and solar cells) and the Commerce Department (on steel and aluminum imports and a list of imports amounting to $60 billion). Trump’s action on the above mentioned imports appeared to be principally targeting at China since exemptions were offered or granted to selected US Allies.
 
Trump’s actions triggered a global fear of trade war. The Wall Street reacted with a number of sharp falls accumulated to 1149 points on Dow Jones Index over two days (3/22-23). Most reactions in the press are negative. Worldwide economists are expressing concerns about the consequences of these tariff measures leading to retaliations which will escalate to a mutually damaging trade war and possibly a global recession. The Nobel Laureate (2001) and former Chief Economist of the World Bank (1997-2000), Professor Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University has expressed his views on trade war in a number of public forums and most recently at China Development Forum in Beijing on March 24, 2018. His main opinions can be summarized as follows: 1. “The U.S. is constrained to act .... as the U.S. depends on low-cost imports. Tariff increases cost of living making Fed to raise interest.” 2. “China has more ability to direct some parts of the economy ... to shift to domestic consumption”. Colin Grabow of Cato Institute also expressed his concern: “China may retaliate by not buying American.....Trump will pay the price.” These remarks seemed to be reasonable, even though it is too early for anyone to predict what events may take place in days to come.
 
When comes to China policy, there is no shortage of either ‘pro-China’ or ‘con-China’ analysts in the U.S. voicing their opinions. However, on the trade issue, I found an incredible view expressed by Gordan G. Chang in his article, Why China Will Lose a Trade War with Trump, published in Daily Beast, on March 26, 2018. Gordon is best known for his book The Coming Collapse of China (2001) predicting the fall of China in 2011. Gordon repeatedly made the ‘collapse’ prediction (The Coming Collapse of China, 2012, e-Edition Foreign Policy;  China’s collapse is coming, more so than ever, 2016) eventually receiving criticism from peers (Chang’s Predictions of China’s Collapse destroy his own credibility, Shen Dingli, 1-5-2016 Global Times). Gordon in his Daily Beast article disputed Grabow and Professor Stiglitz’s analyses and again made a prediction that China will lose the trade war to Trump. By now, we can say that Gordon Chang is somewhat a ‘China Basher’ as evidenced by his publications. Time has proven him wrong; so far, not only China has not collapsed but instead has grown stronger to the point that the U.S. is feeling threatened. If China would collapse easily as Gordon persistently wished, there shouldn’t be any China threat, should it?
 
Gordon repudiates experts’ views on “China holding more leverage (than the U.S.)” by arguing the following: 1. China is more dependent on the U.S. because China maintained a trade surplus for decades, China’s trade surplus related to US trade increased from 68% in 2016 to 88.8% in 2017. 2. The U.S. economy, $19.39 trillion, is greater than China’s $12.84 trillion in 2017. 3. The U.S. economy is more stable than China’s; China has more debt and capital flight problem. Gordon further disputes Stiglitz’s first point stated above by using his wife, Mrs. Chang’s shopping experience that China is no longer the most low-cost goods supplier. Taking apparel as example, Gordon argues that Americans will buy from other Indo-China and Latin American low cost suppliers. On this argument, a consumer’s observation can be considered as one data point but it is hardly a crucial point to cover up the fact that China has been conscientiously upgrading her products to higher technology and higher value added goods. In addition, China has made significant investment in Indo-China and Latin American countries in their manufacturing sectors.
 
Gordon does not believe Stiglitz’s second point nor Grabow’s prediction. Gordon said: “ Stiglitz has misunderstood China’s economy…...China is not a consumption driven economy but an investment driven one. ...China cannot create growth by investing because of her debt problem.” Gordon brushed off the possibility of losing Boeing airplane and US soybean sales to China. I think it is Gordan who failed to understand that for trade items like the two above, China and the U.S. are mutually tied because they are the biggest buyer and the largest seller respectively. Since the U.S. has no monopoly on airplanes or on soybeans, the biggest buyer sure has more leverage than the seller. It is difficult to predict how the domino effect of tariff and counter tariff will play out. However, South Korea, a smaller trader, seems willing to make a modest if not fake concession to the U.S. For getting waived from the US steel tariff, South Korea would take a voluntary quota of 70% of the average steel export to the U.S. over last three years (A  modest concession considering sales was declining) plus doubling American car import quota to 50,000 units. This may appear as a big win for Trump, but whether or not the Korean consumers would change their long held bias preferring Korean to American cars is a big question.   
 
At this point, China’s Ministry of Commerce on March 23rd took a small step to announce tariffs of 15 percent and 25 percent on almost $3 billion of American products in 128 categories in retaliation for Trump’s Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum products. China is yet to respond to Trump’s tariff on $60 billion of Chinese import based on the 301 Trade Act of 1974. Whatever measures China will take, they sure will make some impact on US economy. The U.S. needs steel and aluminum at low prices for her infrastructure upgrade. There is no advantage for jacking up prices by tariffs. I firmly agree with the warning from the majority of experts that tariff or trade war is not a solution to balancing trade or to creating jobs. Let’s hope the two major trading partners in the world will find ways to negotiate out a compromise. 
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Ifay Chang. Ph.D. Producer/Host, Community Education - Scrammble Game Show, Weekly TV Columnist, www.us-chinaforum.org . Trustee, Somers Central School District.
 
 

 
The subject title is big for books, thus difficult to discuss in a limited space. However, the subject is so fitting to think about while China is holding its 13th National People’s Congress (NPC). Therefore, I shall make an attempt to discuss the past, present and future of China in a broad notion. Hopefully, this discussion will draw more in-depth dialogue to follow.
 
The past of China is of course a long history, but only her recent past and history relevant to her present and future will be discussed. China is a unique nation, longing for peace and survived numerous times from external invasions including the meditated Japanese invasion which ultimately became WW II. Following the world trend of revolutionary movement, China endured a treacherous path and suffered from interventions by Western powers and of Russia and Japan. Although China had her glorious past in terms of prosperity (GDP), she missed and ignored the industrial revolution which created the Western powers and Imperial Japan and Russia.
 
The past of China about a century ago can be characterized as an ignorant and sleeping lion indulged in her own governance with no clue and later no energy and no skill in diplomacy as a big nation. China was basically an agriculture country with nearly 80% rural population illiterate. The peasants live a poor life subject to the mercy of nature. A Chinese phrase, 看天吃飯 (pray meals from heaven), described well the Chinese farmers’ lives. There was hardly any industrial base then. Whatever manufacturing existed was largely labor based, inefficient and depended on foreign technology. For example, although Chinese made very significant contribution to metallurgy centuries ago, the steel production of China in 20th century was less than Germany’s in 1871. When Western powers invaded China, Chinese people lost her self-confidence. Chinese thought everything foreign being superior as revealed in the language created at that time, such as 洋(釘nail, 火 match, 油 oil, 裝  suit, 車 car, etc). Adding the word 洋 (foreign or western) means superior quality.
 
China’s Present is now represented by amazing achievements accomplished in the recent decades. When Communist Party of China (CPC) established PRC in 1949 and KMT led ROC retreated to Taiwan, China, though divided, had the same time period of truce without war. The Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait had an opportunity to focus on economy. The CPC went through two decades of experimentation of hardcore communism with obvious obstacles and failures, but its later reform strategy embracing part of capitalism and engaging planned economy (since Deng’s retaking the CPC party leadership in 1978) paid off handsomely. China is now the number two economy of the world beating Japan and Germany. China’s purchasing power based GDP is actually world’s number one.
 
China can be proud of her economic achievement of bringing more than half billion people out of poverty and giving better life to 1.4 billion citizens. Today, China is no longer an ignorant or illiterate nation; China graduates more than eight million college students every year, twice as many as the U.S., a daunting achievement. China not only has become industrialized but also has become the manufacturer of everything for the world and world’s biggest trading power. China’s steel production is the number one in the world drawing US tariff against her steel export (a merely 2% of the total export to the US). China’s infrastructure development outshines every nation with multi-tier cities across the country. The peasants no longer pray their meals from heaven. The new phrase, 知天吃飯 （know nature and harvest come) now describes the knowledgeable peasants lives. The social life of Chinese people is elevated with self-confidence as exhibited by their traveling to every part of the world. Gradually, people understand the difference between the deep and rich Chinese culture and the shallow and simple civility. Foreigners recite Tang Poetry; Western society begins to appreciate the long Chinese history and civilization. Chinese self-confidence is reflected by the Chinese language absorbed into English vocabulary from food to other subjects,炒麵 chowmein, 餛飩 wonton, 豆腐 tofu, 茅台酒 Mao Tai jiu, 餃子 Jiao zi, 長衫 changsan 褀袍 Qi Pao 功夫 kongfu 太極 Tai Ji 武術 wushu 武俠 wu xia 少林 Shao lin 麻將 Mahjong 風水 feng shui 漢字 Hanzi 拼音 pinying, 你好 Nihao, 陰陽 Ying Yan 氣 Qi 道 dao 上海 shanghai 北京 Beijing, 丁 ting, J particle, 嫦娥 chang’e, space vehicle to the moon 武器 wu qi, weapons, so many Chinese phonetic words familiar to the common Westerners.
 
China’s future is uncertain. The rising China is not a threat to the world but she will change the world for sure. The Western powers have tried to lead the world as a uni-polar world order with Western rules  giving little voice to the rising giants, China, India, Brazil, etc etc. The World has changed and the productivity comes from knowledge workers, just China and India alone, millions of knowledge workers joining the work force each year. Peasants will become knowledge workers too. Food production will become a stable element in the economy. The phrase 經營糧食 （food production and distribution management) will describe the ‘peasants’ lives. Continuous technology advances and innovation is the only way to lead the world. China will likely become a principal manufacturer of auto-driving pollution-free ‘autoporters’ as well as robots that producing them.
 
The uncertainty about China’s future is really the uncertainty of the world’s future. Will the legacy Uni-Polar World Order yield to a bi-polar or multi-polar world order by stopping arms race and engaging in genuine collaboration? China has risen militarily as well, by external foreign pressure not by her own design. If the Western powers and Japan continue their irrational military confrontation with China, China has no choice but to respond, leading the world to inevitable world war. If China were not targeted as an enemy, then the world’s future is rosy and China will continue to contribute to world prosperity and peace. The One Belt One Route (OBOR) program will be one beneficial program to the world.
 
With the U.S. and her allies still having a hostile China policy, China obviously must be prepared for the worst scenario with the possible following strategies:

1. Militarily, China will continue to invest in military capability and preparedness unless the world powers can reach a sensible conclusion to urge all parties to stop the ever-increasing military development for more economic development. Hopefully, China’s advances in space program, missile and nuclear weapons, and satellite communication may induce a genuine arms truce treaty among the superpowers.
2. Economically, China will continue to invest in OBOR like win-win programs to stimulate world economy. Hopefully the benefitted countries, especially the developing nations will collaborate with China, in turn influence other nations to join in.
3. Diplomatically, China will likely exercise constraint but be assertive on the side of justice. China will not pursue military base proliferation but will focus on defense measures. China will engage fully with the U.N. and various multi-nation institutions and conferences to seek diplomatic solutions as done before.
4. Culturally, China will exert emphasis internally on the rejuvenation of the Chinese culture, peace loving philosophy and ideology of world harmony and externally on making the world to understand the Chinese culture. Chinese is an efficient language and Chinese history and literature are rich with wisdom. Through cultural exchange to promote world harmony is likely China’s soft-power Strategy. Early signs indicate that such a strategy is effective for gaining mutual acceptance and confidence.

 
The current trend of Chinese language adoption by the West and more people are learning Chinese as a second language are good omens for China and world harmony. Chinese words and phrases, for example, 人民幣 Renminbi, 支付寶 Zhifubao, 元 yuan, 胡同 hutong, 春節 chun jie, etc are exemplary words found in the Cambridge Dictionary. When the number of foreigners learning Chinese increases from millions to tens of millions, the value of Hanzi and the Chinese literature and culture will be widely appreciated. Then the natural integration of citizenship, smooth convergence towards one harmonious nation, and those Special Administrative Regions (SAR) influenced by external forces preferring Chinese influence will take place as China act effectively on the world stage. When China unites peacefully, the world will be more assured that China will continue to contribute to world prosperity and peace.