History of The Cold War
 
The Cold War (1946-1991) literally started right after WW II (1939-1945). The Russian Bolshevik revolution took place in 1917 overthrew the Czar Nicholas II and after a few years of civil war, a socialist state emerged. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) grew to 12 states; Joseph Stalin took over the control of the government when Vladimir Lenin died in 1924. During WW II, USSR absorbed Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and post WW II, the Soviet Union continued with its 'expansionism' foreign policy by installing communist-leaning governments in Eastern Europe while the U.S. was exerting her power and leading the post war recovery in West Europe and South Asia. The US-Russia wartime alliance crumbled and the Cold War began in 1946. The U.S. created the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) of 12 nations in 1949 as a political system resisting communist expansion but it became a military organization when Korean War broke out (1950-1953) ultimately forcing China to defend North Korea against the U.S.-NATO-S. Korea forces. In 1954, the Soviet wanted to join the NATO but got rejected, then the Soviet Union and seven satellite states in Central and Eastern Europe formed the Warsaw Pact, rival to NATO. From then on, the Cold War lasted more then forty years.
 
In 1970, the U.S. President Nixon and his adviser Kissinger formulated a plan to lure China into the West economy to confront the Soviet Union. After two decades, the Soviet Union was disintegrated out of economic collapse (1991). Basically, the Soviet Union's economic development plans were failing, they could not keep up with the arms race with the U.S. The Cold War is an all-front confrontation, including military, economy, technology and diplomacy all depending on a robust economy. Near Soviet's economic collapse, the U.S. GDP ($5.64T) was 15.2% of the World GDP ($36.94T, 1989), China 1.24% ($0.46T) and Russia 1.4% ($0.5T). The U.S.-China had a combined GDP 16.44% ($7.10T) competing with Russia 1.4% ($0.5T). The end result could be predicted. Fortunately, the Cold War did not develop into a hot war or world war. Even though the Cuba missile crisis was scary, but the Soviet Union backed down from the nuclear confrontation, a nuclear war prevented. The U.S. and Russia both possessed considerable nuclear warheads, if a hot war broke out, both and the world would be destroyed. 
 
Another Cold war will lead to WW
 
Of course, during a cold war, the military confrontation is the most dangerous. When the atomic bomb was used in WW II, Japan surrendered reluctantly. Post WW II, as Cold War started, the nuclear power was limited to a few nations. Therefore, it was relatively easy to develop a “Capping the number of nuclear warhead Treaty”. China was willing to announce a policy: “China will never use nuclear weapon first nor used it against any non-nuclear nation.” This policy helped preventing nuclear war during the Cold War. However, long after the collapse of the Soviet Union, China had maintained a rapid pace of economic development. The U.S. had shifted her attention and pressure to China. Consequently, China had increased her defense budget especially in advanced weapon development such as nuclear missiles and submarines. Unfortunately, many smaller nations also wanted to develop nuclear weapon as a deterrence to the abuse from superpowers who possess nuclear weapons. Thus a proliferation of nuclear weapon occurred, now the world is facing nuclear threat from Israel and North Korea, potentially from Iran.
 
Today, China has risen not only as the world's second largest economy maintaining sizable trade with 130 nations but also as a respectable military power. The U.S. seems to be cultivating a second Cold War targeting China. The U.S. pivoted her attention to Asia Pacific and attempted luring Russia against China. Recently, the U.S. increased her diplomatic activities with Japan, South Korea, Australia and India contemplating an AP version of 'NATO' (QUAD+) confronting China. However, Russia and China had elevated their bond both economically and militarily. China also signed a 25-year economic development plan with Iran making a China-Russia alliance seemingly apparent. With proliferation of nuclear weapons (over 10,000 nuclear war heads distributed worldwide), it is unwise and extremely dangerous to initiate another Cold War. First of all, in today's GDP (2020), the U.S. is $20.94T (24.7% of the world GDP $84.54T), China $14.72T (17.4%) and Russia $1.48T (1.7%), thus if the U.S. launches an economic war against China-Russia, it would be 24.7% vs 19.1% significantly worse from Cold War I (U.S.-China against Russia was 16.44% vs 1.4%). With China's man power advantage and highly integrated economy (Russia was totally isolated economically in Cold War I), the U.S. has a very poor odds to win on economic competition. Realizing fighting alone inadequate, the U.S. is trying to build alliances, but one can hardly expect the other countries to sacrifice their vital interests for 'America first' doctrine. If the U.S. dared to use nuclear weapon, it would invite mutual destruction. That is more reason for U.S. allies to hold the U.S. back.      
 
Difference between Cool War and Cold War
 
Since Cold War is not an option (no winning odds except mutual destruction), the U.S. must consider a different strategy. The U.S. must have a plan B which is a Cool War. The author has introduced the concept of Cool War before, essentially competition with wisdom and caution. One makes carefully selected competition. One competes when one can. One will cooperate instead of competing when one realizes that competition is not an option. Of course, making selective competition requires wisdom, reasoning and calm attitude to avoid making wrong selection and/or miscalculating opponent's reactions. For example, Trump Administration launched a broad tariff war against China but with little gain, apparently not a well thought-out selection (China dominates in many basic goods manufacturing). However, the selection of a semiconductor wafer-chip war was a seemingly wiser choice and it indeed caused more disruption and pain in China's manufacturing industries. China has an enormous demand of various chip import. Sanction on chip products and technologies do hurt China since China does not have a complete supply chain of her own yet.
 
Biden continued this competition, broadening to material, design and manufacturing tools and technologies. The impact on China is considerable. However, competing in this domain requires a large sum of capital and human talents to maintain a solid domination. The U.S. does not have such a complete domination, hence she requires allies, for example Japan for advanced materials, South Korea and Taiwan for manufacturing technologies, Holland for special tool (EUV imaging system), etc. In this competition, China is likely to invest in R&D and talent development to catch up and seek self-sufficiency. This will take a few years at least, but with China's economic and industrial base she may succeed. In addition, China is the largest market for chips, the high-end chip technology companies need a market to absorb their products and generate profits to sustain their technology dominance. Therefore, there is no assurance that in the competition of semiconductor-chip technology, the U.S. will definitely come out on top. The smart thing is to assess the competition constantly and carefully, if competition does not bring victory then cooperate. When COVID-19 is still rampant and China is in a better shape in controlling the pandemic, the U.S. decision makers along with their think tank advisers must remain cool to face the Cool War not slipping into a Cold War. 
 
US-China Cool War will be beneficial to the world
 
Comparing Cold War and Cool War, anyone can see that Cold War is not an option. We can predict that Cold War will increase the chance of starting a world war. So if we started Cold War II, there would be no winner or loser but destruction for all. So the U.S. and China must tone down the rhetoric of Cold War and face a Cool War. In a Cool War, we must remember its principle, one must smartly select competition, if competition is not fruitful or rewarding, we must turn to cooperation.  If we follow this principle, any competition or confrontation will not lead to a hot war like Cold War does. We not only can avoid world war, but also can make progress for mankind.  Just like Olympic competitions, no matter who gets the gold medal or the silver medal, breaking the world record, mankind wins. Right now the U.S. and China confrontation seems to be very fierce on the surface heading to a possible world war, but the smart people in the government think tanks on both sides must remain cool and follow the Cool War Principle. Don't let media including social media bring us into the trap of Cold War. Another Cold War will bring us a disastrous world war!  


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Abstract
 
The U.S. - China competition, arrived after two centuries of relations, does seriously affect the future of the two nations. Taiwan for historical reasons has become a key piece of this conflict. The current Taiwan government (DPP) is instigating ethnic divides and promoting independence. That approach has met with opposition from the U.S. and military threat from Mainland China for different reasons. Analysis shows that Taiwan has no role to play politically, economically and militarily in this U.S.-China competition to gain any benefit. Only by awakening to the idea that a self-initiated reunification can improve the U.S.-China relation and can give a prosperous future for Taiwan people. With reunification, there will be one strong China with two or multiple systems definable by all Chinese people.
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However, China’s military power is no longer what it was. Unlike the U.S. spreading her military power over 800 bases worldwide, China’s military is focused on defending sovereignty. Therefore, China has strong defense forces in the ECS and the SCS with militarily fortified islands. Japan, South Korea, Australia, and even India, have no winning chance to challenge China. The U.S. has a strategic thinking, always wanting to fight on another country’s soil rather than on her own so she can advance and retreat at will with no impact on her citizens. But China is not a small country like the Middle East nations who cannot fight back. China has long been prepared with military deterrence against any hostile neighbor, Japan, South Korea, India, even Australia, if there is a provocation, China can strike a fatal blow, with nuclear weapons if necessary as the ultimate deterrence. Therefore, these nations are diplomatically astute in understanding this. China had declared that she won’t strike anyone first, but if anyone would strike her, it sure would receive a fatal retaliatory blow. Therefore, expecting other countries to act as pawns for the U.S. is just wishful thinking.
 
IV. The Role of Taiwan People in the U.S.- China Competition
 
In the US-China competition, the role of Taiwan people can be seen clearly from the three key perspectives: politics, economy, and military. Everyone in the world can see that. First of all, politically, the dream for independence of Taiwan’s political parties is at odds with the U.S. She does not want to see Taiwan’s independence movement to cause serious political and military confrontation with Mainland China. The small actions of the US alliance plot against China are still bounded legally and realistically by the one-China principle. This inevitable result, of course, is the consequence of China's strength today (The Centennial Celebration of CCP in China clearly exhibited China's strength). Taiwan has no role to play in politics nor diplomacy for independence. (Promoting independence will be denied by the U.S., claiming independence will be crushed by China.) The U.S. understands this. In the arena of economy, Taiwan is also in no condition to confront the Mainland. At present, TSMC, the world's leading IC chip maker, had been recruited by the U.S. as a fighter in its technology war with China, but after the fight, if the U.S. lost, Mainland China would surely dominate IC manufacturing. TSMC (and Taiwan) would have nothing to gain. If the U.S. won, the U.S. and China would decouple, and the U.S. might dominate IC manufacturing, then only the leftover business would be dangled in front of Samsung and TSMC after the U.S. companies were fed. Taiwan's trade (even global trade) had become so hopelessly dependent on China; TSMC should be careful in protecting the interests it had obtained from China. Any diversification of Taiwan's economy and trade away from China would be futile. The Northwest is the Mainland, and the East is Japan. However, Japan’s trade relies heavily on the Mainland. Taiwan's 'southward policy' is really an empty slogan. Economy and trade all depend on political and military stability, and the stability of Southeast Asia depends on China. For example, the Myanmar coup just occurred, can Taiwan not rely on the Mainland to protect its economic and trade investments there? Thinking Taiwan has economic freedom is the ostrich mentality of the current Taiwan government, a laughable notion. Taiwan has no role to play militarily either. The U.S. sells outdated arms to Taiwan but places restrictions on their use for being afraid of 'misfire' accidents causing military action from Mainland China. What is the weapon sale for? Obviously, the U.S. needs money to maintain her military and industry to compete with China, in manufacturing, technology, military, space, etc. She must sell arms and collect protection fees (Weren’t Japan, South Korea, and the EU forced to pay protection fees?). So militarily, Taiwan is simply being taken advantage of on weapon sales. The U.S. sells outdated weapons at high prices, and passes non-binding Congressional bills pacifying Taiwan, both do not cost a dime. These cheap tricks only help Taiwan’s pro-US politicians to fool the people in Taiwan. Whether or not the U.S. is good or a real backer to Taiwan can be easily seen in the history of U.S.- China relations.
 
V. Conclusions
 
The relationship between China and the United States is only two hundred years old. China has been the world's largest economic power for many centuries in its thousands of years of history. The characteristics of Chinese culture can be highlighted with the following three points: 1. pursuit of Chinese unification (historical mandate), 2. tolerance and integration of races (Chinese philosophy), and 3. Government expected to enrich the people and to strengthen the country (People's desire), but never aggression against neighbors. China's military power is defensive in nature with 'the spirit of the Great Wall'. China's nuclear weapons will never be used first or for aggression. The people of Taiwan are kind, just like the people on the Mainland culturally. They may be fooled by politicians for a while, but they will never be deceived forever. In this all-round competition between the U.S. and China, the role that Taiwan people should play is that of an awakening soul. The people on two sides of the strait have been separated for 72 years. Politically, Taiwan’s democracy has revealed its advantages and disadvantages. So has the Mainland’s one-party system. Obviously, there is no perfect system, advantages (as evidenced by all-round rapid progress made in China and Taiwan's high GPD per capita) always come with sacrifices and deficiencies. The Taiwan people should understand the meaning of the Chinese culture (the above three points). Taiwan people should wake up to the idea that only reunification can give a prosperous future for the future generations of Taiwan people. Only with reunification can there be one strong nation with two systems or multiple systems. Ultimately, it is the people who define and accept a working system. Taiwan people should realize that self-initiated reunification signifies people taking action to define a desired system. People in Taiwan waking up to this idea during the current U.S.-China competition, will benefit Taiwan, China and the world for a prosperous future!


Ifay Chang. Ph.D., Inventor, Author, TV Game Show Host and Columnist (www.us-chinaforum.org) as well as serving as Trustee, Somers Central School District.

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I. Two Centuries of U.S.-China Relations
 
In Chinese history, the U.S.-China relations spanned only about two hundred years. The U.S. was founded in 1776, less than two hundred and fifty years ago. In the 19th century, the United States was a young rising power. She echoed the colonialism of West powers and followed the British Empire's lead in colonial aggression in Asia. By joining the colonial power, the U.S. had gained a lot of benefits in China, access to ports, commercial trade with no tariffs, etc. The U.S. was a country established by Protestants and was keen on preaching Christianity. Therefore, there were quite a number of American ‘New Christian’ missionaries in China, making a greater influence than other Europeans. In the 20th century, Chinese people awakened and launched a revolution overthrowing the corrupt Manchurian Qing government and founding the Republic of China (ROC) with unofficial assistance from some Americans. The U.S. had proposed the Monroe Doctrine (1823) to oppose the colonization by Britain, France and Spain in Americas. Therefore, the United States did not vigorously participate in colonialism in Asia. After the founding of ROC, unfortunately China was in civil war. The Colonial powers, especially Japan and Russia took the advantage to encroach China. Thus, ROC was in a dare situation facing the humiliating consequences of the unequal treaties. In 1931 Japan started its encroachment of the Northeastern part of China and in 1937, Japan eventually launched its comprehensive plan to conquer China. China resisted with eight years of bitter war. As the Japanese aggression in Asia became a part of WW II, the U.S. and Russia became allies of China in fighting Japan, their common enemy, but with their own interests. China had no choice but to accept foreign aid to fight the industrialized Japan. After WWII, the U.S. and Russia competed for world leadership (behavior of hegemony) and the war-torn China eventually evolved into two parts till today, PRC (People’s Republic of China, CCP in mainland) and ROC (KMT in Taiwan) as a result of foreign support (or interference) from Russia and the U.S., respectively.
 
II. The Origin of U.S.-China Competition
 
In 1949, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) unified the mainland and established the PRC and the ROC (KMT) retreated to Taiwan. The development of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait took two different paths, one under sanction from the West and self-reliance and one dependent on U.S. aid and foreign technology, but with similar objectives (at least initially) to build their economy and improve their standard of living so as to unite the other side with a proven better political system. However, two decades later in 1971, a great change occurred, the United Nations voted and recognized (Resolution 2758, 10/25/1971) the PRC as the only legitimate government representing China with sovereignty over Taiwan. The U.S. also implemented the strategy of luring China for opposing the Soviet Union. This idea had been brewing while the U.S. was supporting the ROC in the UN (Kissinger's secret trip to China was in July 1971 and Nixon’s visit to China was from 2/21-28/1971). In 1979, U.S. President Carter formally recognized the PRC as the only China. The world finally witnessed the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1990. Then, the U.S. sprouted its new strategy targeting China. (As a military superpower, her military-industry power seems to need a target enemy to justify her huge military spending. With the Soviet Union gone, the rising China became the next target.) Under a pragmatic foreign policy, the U.S. left Taiwan but did not abandon it entirely, still using Taiwan as a pawn in the confrontation with China till today. With political independence, China had been focusing on her development of economy and trade, pursuing independent R & D in science and technology, and modernizing her military. PRC had gone from an ‘experimentation and correction’ phase to maintaining a steady double-digit economic growth. After 60 years (1949-2010), China became the world's second largest economy. Through vigorous military R & D, China's navy, army and air forces were advancing fast, notably also with advances in nuclear and space technology, rockets, satellites, and automatic control. These enabled China to achieve her three goals: pushing China to the status of world power with nuclear missiles, suffering no more threats and oppression, and gaining political and diplomatic autonomy. With large economic and trade power, multilateral cooperation and win-win trading strategy, China gradually gained international voice and influence making the U.S. feeling uneasy. On the other hand, Taiwan, after abandonment by the UN and U.S., failed to adhere to China's historical mandate: national reunification, strengthening the nation and enriching the people. Politicians in Taiwan maintained a narrow vision and sought political power for personal gain. The KMT gradually abandoned the goal of reunification, and the emerging party DPP was instigating ethnic divide and promoting independence. The current regime in Taiwan is blindly adhering to the U.S. and its ally Japan diplomatically, losing self-esteem and willingly acting as a pawn in the U.S.-China Chess-like competition.
 
III. U.S.-China All-Out Competition
 
After the 2008 world financial crisis, the U.S.-China competition began to sprout in all directions as China’s financial and economic power became substantial. The Obama Administration began to lay out a plan to contain China. Pivot to Asia-Pacific is its strategic policy. In the Trump era, competition with China had become fierce because of Trump's eager to win attitude and willingness to use all tactics, trade, technology, and financial wars all employed. Then Biden, self-mandated to outperform Trump, directly and officially announced that China was a serious strong competitor. The U.S. was insufficient alone and needed to build an alliance to compete with China. Thus, in addition to continuing with Trump’s anti-China wars above, the Biden team is engaging diplomatic maneuver, human rights accusation and military threats, for example conducting alliance military exercises in East China Sea (ECS) and South China Sea (SCS).
(to be continued)
 
Ifay Chang. Ph.D., Inventor, Author, TV Game Show Host and Columnist (www.us-chinaforum.org) as well as serving as Trustee, Somers Central School District.