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To predict outcome of political events, especially the Presidential election, one must absorb news inputs broadly, follow event development closely and then make an in-depth analysis. In the digital world today, it is not so difficult to achieve the first two steps, but there are challenges to sort out the facts (apart from fake news), to make acute observation (apart from political spinning) and to reveal the truth and insight beyond the mass media spin. If one has an analytical mind and a strong interest in politics, one may take a brave stand to predict the outcome of the political event such as the 2020 US Presidential Election. This article is heading towards that direction. The Trump-Pence and Biden-Harris tickets are written on a red and blue balloon respectively. Through our analysis we hope to pop one balloon to predict the winner before November 3rd.

Trump won the 2016 Presidential election as a dark horse. He excited his campaign with his strong personality, ruthless attacks on the shortcomings of the previous Administration and his fellow contestants. He won by promising to treat America First and make her Great Again. Trump’s first term is very eventful focused on  carrying out his campaign promises. Trump’s actions and tweets inflamed the media because of his unorthodox behavior in creating and dealing with events and his ability of toying with the media with attention catching remarks through his tweets and news conferences. He survived through a merciless impeachment engineered by the Democrats. He launched a controversial trade war based on his America First Principle. He floundered in his management of the COVID-19 pandemic, a natural disaster not really his or anyone’s fault, but he has chosen to blame the COVID-19 and its damage on economy entirely on China, adding to his blame list: China was the culprit for American jobs lost and industries failed. At this point, the polls are casting doubts on his chance of winning the second term.

Joe Biden as the former Vice President won his party primary largely because of being an easier rallying figure among frustrating Democrats who had been divided by over a dozen Presidential candidates only united by ‘dump-Trump’ sentiment. Biden has taken the strategy of unifying his party by integrating his fellow contestants’ ideas (mostly liberal proposals on domestic issues) rather than dwelling deep into issues with his own analyses and solutions. He and his party recognize that the selection of his running mate is extremely important for winning the pivoting voting blocks categorized as women, black, immigrants such as Hispanic and Asians who are still sitting on the fence weighing the General Happiness Index and performance of economy. Hence, it was no surprise that Biden selected Kampala Harris, a woman, a black and a daughter of immigrants as his Vice President running mate.

Traditionally, the incumbent team would not change the running mate (unless for health reason) simply for validating a successful current Administration. Pence has been a very supportive Vice President in a similar way as Biden was for Obama. Pence had no scandalous stories. Pence was explicit in his anti-LBGT position which had been attacked by both Biden and Harris. Due to the COVID-19, this year’s campaign rallies and debates will be very different from the traditional format and practice. This actually could give Biden a slight benefit since Trump was quite effective in exciting his campaign rallies and in debating his opponent with his attack tactics, quite infectious in the media. Biden in contrast is slow on his feet in delivering speeches or responses. However, Senator Harris is an effective speaker as shown by her speech against Betsy Devos’s confirmation hearing for Secretary of Education. Pence had to cast his deciding vote to pass Devos’s confirmation. The coming Pence Harris debate has already been touted as a must see TV with odds favoring Harris, however, the real impact on the voting blocks will likely depend on the messages exchanged in the two debates.

Trump-Pence versus Biden-Harris Presidential contest is basically a red (conservative) against blue (liberal) bipartisan competition ideologically similar to the 2016 election. Even though the polls are giving Biden-Harris a few percentage points lead but that by no means assures a Democrat Victory. Biden wrote to his supporters: "You make a lot of important decisions as president. But the first one is who you select to be your Vice President. I've decided that Kamala Harris is the best person to help me take this fight to Donald Trump and Mike Pence,” This quote revealed Biden’s mind that the 2020 Presidential election is still very much a fight with unpredictable outcome. Thus, his VP selection was more based on ‘vote block’ calculation than on VP qualification - An unfortunate and sad reality about democracy - electing vote-getters rather than selecting most capable and qualified leader.

Harris, the daughter of Jamaican father and an Indian mother (both Immigrants), not only may add women votes and black votes for Biden but also may add some Asian (Indian) American votes for the Biden-Harris ticket. However, for the broader Asian American population, the B-H versus T-P Presidential election may present a difficult choice deserving an in-depth analysis. If the election were dominated by the domestic issues (economy +), the Asian population is generally divided into blue (Democrats) and red (Republicans) factions resulting in a mutually canceled voting result. This phenomenon causes political candidates paying less attention to the Asian Americans’ demands (in contrast, the Jewish voters tend to be a more united block thus can better command the politicians' attention to Jewish interests).

In the 2020 election, the U.S. China policy has become a strong factor in influencing the voting outcome since the mass media narrative has been tying American economy (security, happiness, …) negatively to the rise of China. The Pivot to Asia policy initiated by the Obama Administration was targeting at containing China, but the Trump Administration has elevated the containment policy to a higher level, not only blaming China as the culprit for America’s shrinking influence on the world stage and her economic problems but also treating China as the threatening competitor. Pompeo's recent speech at the Nixon library  openly described a ‘war plan’ against China, urging the U.S. allies (with keen effort in recruiting India, a non-alignment nation) to form a U.S. led coalition against China ranging from trade restrictions, technology sanctions to military exercises. Since the breakout of COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S.-China relation hit the bottom witnessing the U.S. playing the Taiwan card (selling arms to Taiwan and encouraging its independence movement) and Hong Kong and Xinjiang Human Rights accusation.

The Asian voter population are generally less vocal about American politics but they, comparing to White Americans, are more informed and sensitive to Foreign Affairs. The current hostile U.S. China Policy will present a difficult choice to the Asian Americans, especially the Chinese Americans and the American immigrants from India, Vietnam , the Philippine, etc.. The two parties and the T-P and B-H tickets appear to be united on the China policy which may cause the Asian Americans to shy away from voting (with no good choice). The Asian Americans think that a hostile China policy, or worse a war plan, will lead to a disaster in Asia, the U.S. and the world. So the author would predict a less turn-out of Asian American voters in the 2020 Presidential election. This phenomenon will make picking or predicting a winner more difficult at this point.

However, if either B-H or T-P would tone down the senseless 'blame China' or 'hate China' rhetoric and advocate a more sensible ‘Pivot to Asia Peace’ policy and commitment, the election outcome would be very different. Perhaps for the first time, the Asian American voters may show solidarity in supporting one U.S. Presidential choice, hence the Asian Americans may influence the outcome of the 2020 election. This prediction will generally stand even with further analysis on the Asian American voters sentiments in their subgroups, say  pro-Mainland China, pro-Taiwan, pro-India, pro-ASEAN, pro-Hong Kong protests and anti-Hong Kong Protests and pro-BLM (Black Live Matters) and anti-BLM. Perhaps, understanding the Asian Americans’ different views on the U.S. foreign policy may become important in determining the winner of the presidential election. This will be a discussion in a future column.

 
Following the DNC held in Milwaukee from August 17th to 20th, the 2020 RNC was also held for four days, from August 24th to 27th. The choice of dates was a smart one for the simple reason that the media had to put more attention on covering the on-going RNC than following up the post-DNC conversations. So would the general public including me in spending our time. Trump has TV experience and he certainly knows how to use it in the RNC by hiring TV program creators (For example, Sadoux Kim and Chuck Labella associated with the Apprentice). The pandemic limited the DNC and RNC in the same way, but the difference was like Hollywood movie production versus a low budget documentary. Of course, Trump may have cunningly used the White House and DC backdrop for special effects, but that has always  been the privilege for an incumbent. Trump treated this event as a talent show and he is the Talent-in-Chief. The sequence of two party national conventions has always become been the challenging party first and the incumbent second since 1956. In view of the advantage the incumbent party has, perhaps the sequence should be determined by  draw and be set at least ten days apart.
 
The Republican Party had selected Charlotte, North Carolina for its convention site. Due to COVID-19, the RNC had restricted to 60 delegates per state (plus 36 convention staff) to attend the first day in Charlotte (originally planned for 2500 attendees). Then the RNC was moved to Jacksonville in next three days conducting a virtual convention with speakers mostly delivering from Andrew Mellon Auditorium or White House. The Republican Party has decided to retain the 2016 platform thus reducing the necessary meetings needed at the convention (DNC had caucus meetings in Milwaukee). This may be RNC’s second smart decision made before the  Convention, it not only reduced quite a number of in-person meetings but also eliminated any bickering on issues which essentially allowed President Trump to focus on elaborating his fulfillment of his last campaign promises which he surely did in his acceptance speech. The voters would have heard and gained more and better familiarities on RNC’s policies and issues than on DNC’s platform proposals. (furthermore Trump’s deeds have been scrutinized for nearly four years by the media) So the contrast of DNC and RNC can be viewed as one defending (Trump’s) performance and one convincing (Biden’s) ability - a comparison we voters must pay close attention.
 
The four-day RNC agenda is themed by Land of Heroes, Land of Promises, Land of Opportunities and Land of Greatness, respectively. RNC filled each Day with speakers and promotional video stories relevant to the theme. The RNC speaker list contains political figures and famous people (as had DNC’s list) including the following: Sen. Tim Scott (KN)(SC), Rep. Steve Scalise (LA), Matt Gaetz (FL) and Jim Jordan (OH), Gov Nikki Haley (SC), Donald Trump Jr., and others. (Day 1) First Lady Melania Trump(KN) , Sec. of State Mike Pompeo, Sen. Rand Paul (KY), Governor Kim Reynolds (IA), Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez (FL), AG Daniel Cameron (Ky), f-AG Pam Bondi (FL), Eric and Tiffany Trump and others (Day 2), VP Mike Pence(KN) and Sara Pence, Sen. Marsha Blackburn (TN), Joni Ernst (IA), Gov. Kristi Noem (SD), Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY), Lee Zeldin (NY), A. Dir. Natl Intell Richard Grenell, Lara Trump and others (Day 3), President Trump (KN), Sec. of H.U. Ben Carson, Sen. Mitch McConnell (KY), Tom Cotton (AR), Rep. Kevin McCarthy (CA), and Jeff Van Drew (NJ), Ivanka Trump, former-Mayor Rudy Giuliani (NY) and others. (Day 4)
 
One must give credits to the Trump family in the speaker list who all had given  great speeches in support of Donald Trump. Melania delivered a fine speech from the White House Rose Garden while the President watched, a speech by far better than her 2016 speech. Although Trump’s sons spoke very well but his daughters showed more charisma, Ivanka, an experienced speaker gave a moving and impressive speech to introduce her father on the acceptance night and Tiffany, a fresh college graduate delivered a fine account of her father’s accomplishments. Sure, these speeches may have had speech writers’ polishing, but the sincerity and emotion can not be created by words alone in a public speech. In 2016, many Americans voted for Donald Trump because of his fine family, in 2020, I personally believe that they will still be many voters casting their votes for Donal Trump for the same reason despite of books published defaming him.
 
Donald Trump loves to give speeches at campaign rally. He flew to Charlotte on the first night of RNC after it completed the nomination and gave a long and enthusiastic speech. The effect is quite positive despite the CNN, MSNBC and others pouring cold water on his speech with fact checks. His acceptance speech was also long and dynamic aided by the staging at the White House providing an ambient perfectly suited for delivering a ‘Keep America First’ speech boiling people’s patriotic blood. Comparing Trump’s speech with Biden’s speech, I would say that Trump sure has solidified his base voters far more than Biden has on his. As for the undecided voter population, no one could predict the result, but if energy, enthusiasm and choreographic ability would mean anything in moving mass, the RNC sure had outdone the DNC. Of course, the post-convention activities may undo some of the impact, Trump had won in 2016 despite of the mainstream media siding with his opponent. Can Trump win again? We will try our best to make an analysis here.
 
After reviewing the two parties’ conventions, some mainstream media reactions and a few Organic views, I may make the observation that Trump’s strategy is focusing on his claims and showing he has delivered his campaign promise, ‘Keep America First’ and ‘Make America Great’. He will dwell on this big picture and not on the details and tactics by showing that he has won the trade wars against a few nations including our allies. He will correlate the economy (before pandemic) to his tax cuts and deregulation effort to get corporations and jobs back. He will show his strategy of getting our allies to pay defense cost while we beef up our military. He will show by acting tough (before too late) we may still get our way externally and manage the unrest internally. He has picked China as the target to highlight and visualize his ‘Keep America First’ and ‘Make America Great’ playbook regardless whether his accusations against China were true or not. Meanwhile the Democratic Party is denying his claims by faulting his tactics and focusing on details, especially his lies. The fact that the Democrats were silent on China policy is implicitly endorsing Trump’s choreographed big picture screenplay.
 
Can American voters tell that Trump’s ‘Keep America First and Make America Great’ strategy may fail because of his tactics being too far from the norm and too low beneath the justice? Or Trump knows himself to apply the brakes in time and change his tactics. Nation destiny and world affairs are not like real estate business, bankruptcy is not an option. Trump should be smart enough to know that (keep calling Xi and Putin friends) but does Biden know that? It is not apparent from his silence on China policy and his ignorance on Trump’s big picture screenplay. How should we, especially Chinese Americans, select the next American President, then? I will deal with the question in the next column!

 
The human society is under an unprecedented test by the COVID-19 pandemic on top of numerous natural disasters such as earth-quakes, floods, even grasshoppers and man-made turmoil such as violent riots, massive protests, never ending vicious military confrontations and wars. The U.S. as the richest nation and the only superpower in the word has been leading the world for the past eight decades, but today, the U.S. leadership is being questioned not only by the third world, other developing and developed countries but also by Americans themselves subconsciously if not openly. From sociology point of view, one wonders what has happened to American society and American leaders? Why is America losing her esteem in leading the world? The answers may be correlated with some statistical data, but a clearer picture may be described by adjectives based on broad observations. The author attempts to diagnose the American society which is inevitably driving the U.S. including her elected political leaders to today's status. Hence, the article is entitled, American Society Is ‘S.A.F.E.’ But Failing, which will be explained below.
 
‘S.A.F.E.’ Is a group of adjectives collected under their initial letters for describing American societal phenomena. ‘S’ represents 'sore, sad and sinking'. ‘A’ represents 'anger, aching and anxious'. ‘F’ represents 'fair, fear and fending'. And 'E' represents 'equal, egoistic and evil'. We shall explain how these adjectives may describe American society to create a picture which may be responsible for the status the U.S. is in, losing respect and esteem on the world stage and crumbling and ineffective in dealing with our domestic issues. The American economy has been stagnant for years in terms of per ca-pita GPD, the society wealth gap has been continuously widening for decades, the racial discrimination and inequality issue have become more pronounced. Our foreign policy seems to be driven by legacy beliefs and ego never accepting reality. Let's see how 'S.A.F.E.’ describe our society!?
 
First, let’s look at the composition of American society. It is for sure an immigrant society consisting of the White (majority and principal initial settlers), the Black (the second largest minority behind Hispanics and most discriminated group perhaps next to the remaining <2% American Indians), and the Yellow-Brown (including the Mexican, Chinese and Indian immigrants). The sentiments of the Whites can be adequately described by ‘Sore’, ‘Sad’ and ‘Sinking’. The U.S. was dominated by the Whites in every aspect ever since they demolished the American Indians. They were the ones followed the world industrial revolution, created the large if not the greatest independent nation. The Whites dominated the economy, agricultural and technological industries and excelled in science, arts, sports … all arenas. Today, they feel 'sore' because their domination has gradually being eroded by the Blacks and the Yellow-Browns. The sore loser feeling is of course accentuated in the middle- and lower class-Whites, white and blue collar workers. Some Whites are still dominating the ultra rich sectors of American society, but more Whites felt 'sad' when they saw the American society losing her economic power, directly translated to losing buying power. The social programs paid by their tax dollars have not improved the harmony in their society - filled with social problems such as drugs, crimes, poverty, and riots. The recent 'George Floyd' incidence triggered Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement which made some Whites more 'sad'. Overall, even including the so called top 0.1% or 1 %, the Whites have a 'sinking' feeling, the U.S. is 'sinking'.
 
The Blacks in the U.S. was liberated from slavery and given voting right in 1865. That was 155 years ago yet today the Blacks are still the worst performing minority group comparing to Whites and Yellow-Browns, Asians and Mexicans, in terms of their median household income (2017 data: Asians $81,331, Whites $68,145, Hispanics $50,486 and Blacks $40,258.) Furthermore, the black community exhibits more crime rate which compounded the societal discrimination against the Blacks. Of course, the Blacks felt 'angry' when they experienced discrimination; this anger can easily explode if a specific incidence (as seen in the latest police brutality case) was against a Black, criminal or not. This type of conflict persisted to today since the slavery era despite of numerous legislation enacted to eliminate discrimination and to elevate equality. Some Blacks who succeeded academically and economically often have an 'aching' feeling when facing the Black's issues; their successes in contrast to the large number of Blacks living in ghettos made them feel painful and hopeless. Thus, among Blacks, there is a great anxiety, hoping for an instantaneous change. But that seems not possible judging on the 155 years of slow social progress in the black race in the U.S. In the third world, Africa, drastic progress had been made in both economic and politic arena post WW II. This social phenomenon adds another provocation to the American Blacks. Even though the U.S. had a black President, it did not ease the 'angry, aching and anxious' sentiments of American Blacks.
 
The Asian minority group in the U.S. came from different national origins but by the color of their skin and similar cultural background they were bonded loosely as a minority group. The recent Asian immigrants did not experience the severe discrimination the earlier Chinese immigrants had in the 19th and early 20th century. The Asian community generally felt the American society being ‘fair’ enough with abundant economic opportunities. With their respect for education and character of diligence and thrift, the Asian group made significant progress socially and economically despite of their lack of interest in politics. However, this ‘fair’ feeling or sentiment has been replaced by 'fear' feeling in recent years. Why? The colonial discrimination against Asians has vividly returned. The Hong Kong violent riots received endorsement from the U. K. and the U.S. and was praised as Human Rights movement in contrast to the BLM movement exploded worldwide treated more as a violence than human rights demand (sadly petering out just like previous movements). The trade competition between the U.S. and China is escalated unfairly beyond economical level to other domains. Chinese scientists are unfairly singled out as potential spies. The civilian company Huawei was unfairly sanctioned from U.S. market. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) attempted to cancel all Asian student visas (F1 and M1). All these unfair and prejudice policies have converted ‘fair’ to ‘fear’. As a result, Chinese (and Asian) communities are organized and armed themselves to 'fend' violence. 'Fending' for themselves became necessary even though most Asians were basically peace-loving people.
 
Freedom and equality are two principal American values. Freedom more than 'equality' can be guaranteed by laws. Even the U.S. constitution prescribes all men are 'equal', the social and economic inequality prevails in the U.S. society. The White dominated America exhibits her superiority through her 'egoistic' manners. 'American Exceptionalism' and 'Make America Great Again' are 'egoistic' slogans appealing to American 'ego'. The American foreign policies carried out with American 'ego', unfortunately created 'evil' deeds, punishments, sanctions and wars. More such deeds were done, more 'evil' the U.S. appeared to the world. Sure, the superior military strength of America prevented retaliation or revolt against the U.S. but nevertheless the 'evil' image of the U.S. was looming. With the rapid rise of China and the weakening of the U.S. economy and even in technology, it is no surprise that the U.S. is showing signs of 'failing'. Yes, if we could not honestly reflect on why our society is disintegrating and make corrections, then America society will be 'S.A.F.E.' but failing for sure! 
 
Ifay Chang. Ph.D., Inventor, Author, TV Game Show Host and Columnist (www.us-chinaforum.org) as well as serving as Trustee, Somers Central School District.