Since founding of the U.S. 247 years ago, a democratic system has been implemented in the U.S., a federation of states. The U.S. Congress has two chambers, the Senate and the House of Representatives. The former has two elected senators per state, thus a total of 100 senators from the fifty states. The latter has a total of 435 representatives elected from districts of each state according to population distribution. (Washington, DC, the capital adds 3 representatives) This democratic system progressed from only white male landlords being voters to adding male black landlords, then to all free male citizens throughout the country after the abolition of slavery, and then including female citizens in 1920 - a system where every individual is free and equal, a true one-person-one-vote democratic system.
But this kind of democratic system has its negative genes with shortcomings. That is, individuals may put private interests or the interests of small groups above the interests of large groups, or even above national interests. This will create problems, generate barriers, and form divisions. For example, an individual or a small town may refuse a railroad or a highway to pass through its properties for the sake of protecting the interests of the individual and the small town. In a democratic system, it is difficult to solve the problem of how to place the law of “minority obeying majority”, at the township, county, city, province (state), or country, level or where to apply the law to public and private entities of which size. Therefore, this democratic gene is a hidden trouble, and may cause social division and national turmoil. The small troubles could be democratic protests, which might hinder administrative progress or effectiveness, and the big troubles might erupt riots even revolutions, creating serious national security issues.
The U.S. presidential election involves the participation of all the people, but the results of the voting are counted by states to produce 438 presidential electors for Congress. The 438 electors represent the above-mentioned 50-state congressional districts (435) and the city of Washington (3). A presidential candidate must get more than half (>438/2=269) of the electors’ votes to get elected as the U.S. President, that is, at least 270 electoral votes. In this counting method, 48 states and Washington DC would give all their electoral votes to the candidate winning the highest votes in their states, but Maine and Nebraska would distribute the electoral votes to every candidate on the ballot according to their winning. This method of voting for the president by proxy electors may elect a president who has fewer popular votes than the losers.
This is also a hidden danger. When two candidates, one wins the proxy vote but loses the popular vote, and the other wins more than half of the popular votes, the victory will be unconvincing. Voters will not be happy either. This situation has the potential to tear the country apart. Although the 2020 US presidential election did not have the above-mentioned vote counting results, it was close thus it produced protests and riots expressing no confidence in the vote count. Some Trump fans still hold this view today. In the 2024 presidential election, there will be stricter controls on vote counting for sure and candidates will also pay more attention to win electors in various states.
Today, the Democratic Party is in power, and it is inevitable for the incumbent to use his power to help his re-election. Once the incumbent party announced that the incumbent president will seek re-election, most of those in the party with presidential ambition will stop talking, unless their election bid only creates benefits and no risk. Biden’s poll support is only 36%, and 70% of the people in the country (51% Democratic Party) do not want him to be re-elected. Counting from Bush (1992) or Carter (1980), Biden can be said to be the weakest presidential re-election candidate. But his two current primary contenders, Robert Kennedy, Jr. and Mary Ann Williamson, are not politically strong. Strong figures like Sanders or Warren have expressed their support for Biden's 2024 reelection.
Therefore, to analyze whether anyone in the Democratic Party will run in the 2024 election one must examine whether the election may bring any harm. Recently, the Boston Globe (James Prayer) cited a few examples, some of which are really possible. The first is the scandalous former Governor of New York Cuomo, Jr. and the second is the former Housing Secretary Castro. During the 2020 campaign, Castro made fun of Biden for not being able to remember what he said two minutes ago, Biden hated that and would not give him any position in Biden’s Administration. In addition, the two leaders of the former Sanders 2020 campaign team, Jeff Markley and Nina Turner, might not have anything to lose by using their fund-raising experience to build assets for the future.
As for the Republican Party, it will be more exciting in the 2024 US election. Although Trump is entangled in lawsuits, tax issues, and illegal possession of classified secret documents. His campaign for the presidency is absolutely eye-catching. There are more than a dozen GOP candidates joining on the stage. It is too early to analyze them one by one. Let’s list a dozen names for later analysis and comparison. They are Trump, Haley, Ramaswarmy, Scott, Hutchinson, Elder, DeSantis, Pence, Christie, Bergman, Suerez, Hurd, and Youngkim. At present, Trump's lead in the polls is also the focus of the media. The important thing is that he has started to express his vision. First, he wants to expand presidential powers, including the ability to hire and fire federal government workers; and strengthen educational controls. He also wants to limit the scope of the judiciary reach and reduce the funding of the justice and the FBI, and he also expressed his views on the Ukraine war, gender and abortion issues.
Trump’s election remarks will naturally drive the development of the entire election going forward. The political elites in the U.S. will follow up Trump’s speeches and make commentary essays, unlike Taiwan's mass media, which only play superficial word games (such as the 1992 Consensus mentioned or not), and do not expect candidates to express in-depth political opinions and ideas. Trump's political views are not supported by the majority of the American people, but his opponent Biden's current polls are even lower. Therefore, the 2024 general election in the U.S. is not much clearer than the one in Taiwan. The similarity lies in the money suppliers in the background and their manipulation of the mass and social media over time, But America's presidential candidates end up having to endure several rounds of grueling in-person debates that will reveal the qualities of the candidates. Let us wait and see, and hope that this article can inspire Taiwan's 2024 general election candidates to actively give political speeches and seriously participate in candidate debates, and eventually offer voters a real democratic choice, not a no-choice choice.