US-China Forum (English)
                             
  • Home
  • Weekly Forum
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Special Events
  • Donate
  • Article
  • 中文

Tsai Ing-Wen’s International Plea Published in Foreign Affairs

11/6/2021

0 Comments

 
Dr. Wordman
 
Abstract

Comments on “Taiwan and the Fight for Democracy-A Good Force in the Changing International Order”, paper by Tsai Ing-Wen, published in Foreign Affairs November/December 2021 issue. This is a 'call for help' paper seeking sympathizers. However, the paper contains many contradictory points and false statements. The author feels sad after reading it and urges politicians and political parties to think hard on the question: Who really cares about Taiwan?
 
The publication time of this article, the United News report: "Written at the invitation of Foreign Affairs" and its English and Chinese title, all suggested that this episode was too much like an orchestrated drama co-starred by the United States and Taiwan. The wording used in this article seems to be entirely based on the current script of the United States strategy of forming a world alliance of democracy against non-democracy (US-defined): Indo-Pacific future, Taiwan model (pawn), changing rules, and struggle between good and evil. Tsai Ing-wen is very proud that Taiwan is considered by the United States as a model of democracy. It doesn't matter where the content of the article comes from or who has modified or edited it; she is willing to sign and publish this article. What is important is that when the mainland celebrates the National Day on October 1st and commemorates the 110th anniversary of Sun Yat-Sen’s successful Xin-Hai Revolution of 1911 on October 9th, the United States and Taiwan must also appear in the media. Thus, the article scheduled to be published on the November/December bimonthly FA periodical quickly appeared on October 5th on the network. However, Xi Jinping’s speech on the 110th anniversary of the Xin Hai Revolution had clearly attracted more attention from Chinese and Westerners worldwide. Xi mentioned the Taiwan issue. The language was short but powerful. The Taiwan issue must be resolved along with national rejuvenation. Cross-strait reunification is the common will of all Chinese people. And he declares that one country - two systems is the basic framework for the common development of the motherland, emphasizing peaceful development, complete reunification, opposing secession, and claiming that Taiwan’s independence movement is a serious crime. Those who engages in splitting the country will not end well and they will be spurned and judged by the country and its people.
 
The author received Tsai Ing-Wen’s manuscript after October 10th. After reading it, he felt sad and not excited as he was after hearing Xi’s speech. Tsai’s article read like a long-winded call for help. On the one hand, it is saying that Taiwan is the model of democracy: on the other hand, it is saying that in the world the democratic system is falling to an disadvantageous position comparing to an authoritarian system. The article says Taiwan is being suppressed by the international community and is looking for unusual channels to connect with the world, but the article also says that Taiwan is a powerhouse that can maintain the world supply chain and help develop the regional economy. Any person who cares about international affairs and has the ability to judge and analyze really cannot offer any positive comment on Tsai’s article other than saying that the purpose of her article is to call for help. But due to the contradictory and false statements in its content, people cannot respond to its call for help with sympathy. Some people on the Internet say that Tsai is like a desperate dog jumping over a wall (狗急跳牆), compelled to write the desperate article. This author would like to suggest another analogy. It is like a domestic cat who lands on the top edge of a high wall and doesn't know how to get off. If it jumps down, it will be seriously injured. This circular high wall has no end. This cat has everything to eat and drink in a castle, living comfortably, but it foolishly jumps out of the window. Fortunately, it lands on the edge of the high wall escaping a death fall. Is it useful to call for help now? I'm afraid it must wait for the owner to rescue it! The author uses this metaphor to describe the author's feeling, and this feeling comes with a reason. Please continue to read the following.
____________________________________________________________________________________

 
Taiwan is a part of China and China is the master. Most of the people of Taiwan are connected by blood from the descendants of Yan Huang (炎黃子孫). Taiwan’s exports to the mainland account for 40% of its total exports. Mainland, with more people, makes greater progress as expected. Even in the semiconductor area, Taiwan is no match. Otherwise, would the mainland be able to go to the Moon and Mars? TSMC is just an OEM company which requires a lot of capital. Does the mainland have no money? The U.S. still owes her trillions of dollars! The US democratic system has progressed over 250 years still engaging in endless bipartisan fights deterring nation building. Taiwan has only been engaged in 30 years of democracy with more vicious party fights. Can Taiwan be considered as a model of democracy? The third world countries do not believe that nor will the developed European democracies. Lithuania may want to pretend to be a fairy tale country to take Taiwan to a joy ride back to eighteenth century, but Taiwan must be realistic. This is Tsai Ing-Wen’s first contradictory point. Being unyielding under pressure but taking no adventurous step even with help is another contradictory point. In Tsai’s content, she states that authoritarian governments function more efficiently in dealing with the pandemic, which promotes a contrast of ideologies. The article also implies that Taiwan is able to control the epidemic disease properly and help other regions, but she does not provide any specific data to prove it. Tsai directly compares the threat of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) proportional to the value of Taiwan. She also believes that Taiwan can contribute to maintaining the stability of the region. This is so contradictory to the purpose of this article, calling for help. On the one hand, Tsai is praising Taiwan's value by citing technology (artificial intelligence, biochemical technology, and semiconductor industries) to emphasize its strength. On the other hand, it admits an asymmetric situation, including military strength, obscured international relations (relying on special diplomatic channels), and need to invest in a mysterious asymmetric defense capability. This is also a contradictory point. Should Taiwan fail, would the whole region really be finished as she implied? Let’s ask who really cares most about Taiwan? The answer should be mainland China!
 
In addition to Many contradictions, Tsai has also made many false or untrue statements. Tsai believes that his government represents the entire people of Taiwan and that the people trust the elected officials, a great relationship. However, we know that Taiwan’s impeachment activities are more flaring than that in the U.S. Presidential candidate, Han Guo Yu, supported by millions of people, can be easily removed by a manipulated impeachment by the DPP. Now the KMT will also use the same tactics to depose or recall DPP officials, Taiwan was able to experiment with a democratic system because the CCP adhered to its belief in peaceful reunification and proposed a one country - two systems policy, which has given Taiwan decades of peace. However, Taiwan’s political parties (and politicians) only strive for political power by fooling voters, engaging in ethnic divisions, and completely disregarding the long-term safety and prosperity of the people. Doesn’t anti-China mean abandoning peace? Isn’t it true that there can be no democracy if no peace? Tsai not only failed to report the truth, but instead clung to the thighs of the U.S. defaming Mainland China with no conscience. She also used the strategy of the Democratic Alliance to oppose Mainland China. Comparing Tsai’s paper with the US White Paper on China, you can see the similarities in the text, and especially the tone, so much like the American version (Example, "We have to invest considerable resources to deepen our understanding of the Beijing regime". Isn’t this what the Americans often say?). What’s more ridiculous is that Tsai learned from the American National Endowment for Democracy (NED funding regime change worldwide) to set up a Taiwan Democracy Foundation funding organizations advocating democracy and human rights. The article also said that Taiwan would fight negative information because Taiwan had considerable experience in this regard. Judging from Taiwan’s cyber army (網軍performing fake news and personal attack) and organized fraud gangs (詐騙集團committing global crimes), Taiwan is indeed very experienced. Isn't Tsai's admission like a Kingsley gaffe?!
 
Tsai’s call for help is to find sympathizers (and the U.S. is looking for anti-China allies) and beg for cooperation, exchanges, and trades. Taiwan uses the trade money it earns from the Mainland (hundreds of billions of surplus) to buy US used weapons and supply resources for other small countries to take an anti-China stand. Should this work, ethically? Can it go far with no repercussion? Whether the U.S. can organize an anti-China Democratic League is yet unknown, and who will make a profit in the end in the competition between the U.S. and China is uncertain. What is certain, however, is that in this competition game between the U.S. and China, other relevant countries are all pawns, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc. etc., Taiwan is just a little pawn, not something that an article can change its status. For the sake of the future of the people in Taiwan, Taiwan’s political parties and politicians should learn from this call for help, not to be a cat who jumps onto the edge of a tall wall or a child who runs away from home in defiance of the parents. Think about where your home is, who really cares about you and hurry up and find your way home!



0 Comments

To War Or Not to War for Taiwan

10/23/2021

0 Comments

 
Dr. Wordman
​ 
An article published on the Guardian on October 5, 2021, entitled, The US Must Avoid War with China over Taiwan at All Cost, was authored by Daniel L. Davis who is a senior fellow for defense priorities and a former lieutenant colonel in the US army, deployed into combat zones four times. He is also the author of The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America. His opinion is certainly based on his military knowledge. His main points are as follows: 

  1. “American policymakers must face the cold, hard reality that fighting China over Taiwan risks an almost-certain military defeat – and gambles we won’t stumble into a nuclear war.”
  2. “There would be no palatable choice for Washington if China finally makes good on its decades-long threat to take Taiwan by force. Either choose a bad, bitter-tasting outcome or a self-destructive one in which our existence is put at risk.”
  3. “The deputy secretary of defense, Kathleen Hicks, said that if Beijing invades Taiwan, “we have a significant amount of capability forward in the region to tamp down any such potential. Either Hicks is unaware of how little wartime capacity we actually have forward deployed in the Indo-Pacific or she’s unaware of how significant China’s capacity is off its shores, but whichever the case, we are in no way guaranteed to “tamp down” a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.”
  4. “Earlier this year, Senator Rick Scott and Representative Guy Reschenthaler introduced the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act which, Representative Reschenthaler said, would authorize “the president to use military force to defend Taiwan against a direct attack”. In the event of an actual attack, there would be enormous pressure to fast-track such a bill to authorize Biden to act. We must resist this temptation.”
  5. “The best that could be hoped for would be a pyrrhic victory in which we are saddled with becoming the permanent defense force for Taiwan (costing us hundreds of billions a year and the equally permanent requirement to be ready for the inevitable Chinese counter-attack).”
  6. “The most likely outcome would be a conventional defeat of our forces in which China ultimately succeeds, despite our intervention – at the cost of large numbers of our jets being shot down, ships being sunk, and thousands of our service personnel killed. But the worst case is a conventional war spirals out of control and escalates into a nuclear exchange.”
 
There were quite a number of comments posted by readers. Many just like I agree with Davis' military assessment. However, many readers do not seem to support his not-to-war position. The ones that disagreeing with Colonel Davis can be represented by the words, obligation and duty, hence willing to war, for example, “We have a duty to protect Taiwan, it’s been etched in stone for decades. If the US falter in this commitment, it will be open season for all the world’s adversaries to do as they please.” The ones agreeing with Davis further pointed out the dependency of the West on China's manufacturing. As for strategy, Davis' suggestion is as follows: “The most effective course of action for Washington would be to condemn China in the strongest possible terms, lead a global movement that will enact crippling sanctions against Beijing, and make them an international pariah. China’s pain wouldn’t be limited to economics, however.” This is more or less Biden's Administration is doing or hope to achieve, but so far the progress is not prominent.
 
The Taiwan issue has been discussed in the US-China Forum for nearly a decade, but our views seem to fall on deaf ears. We have discussed the history behind the Taiwan issue – it was a result of a Chinese internal war following the ending of WW II. The split of China across the Taiwan strait happened while the world was polarized between a capitalist liberal democratic West led by the U.S. and a communist authoritarian system controlled by the Soviet Union. China had two political parties fighting for power but they had a common goal to unite China and make China strong again despite of the external influence from the Soviet Union and the U.S. The Chinese would have been united if there were no interference from the U.S. and the Soviet. There was no obligation for the U.S. or any other nation to fight in or for a Chinese internal war. The U.S. has no reason to get involved with any political party in Taiwan for its struggle for power. It is none of the U.S. business.
 
The U.S. has been a superpower since the end of WW II and she became The Superpower when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1989-1991. However, being a superpower does have obligation in maintaining world peace and promoting world prosperity, but it has no obligation nor right to interfere with other nation's internal affairs. China is a perfect example that she has five thousand years of history and far richer culture and literacy than any nation on Earth. If China is progressing to find the perfect system for governing China who in this world has the right or obligation to dictate or interfere with China's own political evolution? Other nations especially the U.S. should try to understand what a political system with Chinese characteristics mean.
 
The present Taiwan government is ruled by a small political party. Even the present party chose to be a poppy of the U.S., we should be wise enough to stay neutral. The fact that China has risen so fast and advanced in numerous domains making the U.S. uneasy, the U.S. must reflect on itself why we are falling behind? No, no country can steal another country's success. China rose peacefully. She did not wage war or conquer any other country to make her growing strong. From Col. Davis' article, we should ponder what are the differences that have made China to be a world power in a few decades? Only through a humble reflection we may grow strong again. If the U.S. interferes with the Taiwan issue, the outcome will be what Davis predicts. Any hegemony strategy or Thucydides theory is obsolete in a nuclear power world. We must learn how to compete and accept reality.
​
Ifay Chang. Ph.D., Inventor, Author, TV Game Show Host and Columnist (www.us-chinaforum.org) as well as serving as Trustee, Somers Central School District.
     

0 Comments

Taiwan's Future Lies in People's Real Awakening

7/24/2021

0 Comments

 
Dr. Wordman
 
The tension in Taiwan Strait has risen as we are witnessing the U.S. - China relations deteriorating. Many political analysts tend to look at the Taiwan problem as a not solvable issue because of the U.S.-China conflict. Historians and political scientists alike generally understand that China has a historical mandate to unite with Taiwan to end the sad and shameful chapter – Taiwan, seized by Japan in 1845 and returned to China in 1945 after Japan surrendered in WW II, yet to unite with the motherland. The present separation between Taiwan and the Mainland was the result of a Chinese internal war, dragged on over 75 years with external interference. Russia backed the Chinese Communist Party (CCP now governing the Mainland) and the U.S. backed the regime retreated to Taiwan (governed under an evolving democracy with two major parties, Kuo Ming Tang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)). The current ruling party in Taiwan is DPP, which advocates independence for Taiwan. That goal is not achievable, because CCP would for sure use force to reunite with Taiwan. The U.S. does not want to see Mainland-Taiwan reunited making China stronger than she already is. Neither would the U.S. want to see Taiwan independent dragging herself into a war at a formidable high price and getting less control if Taiwan is truly independent. Thus the Taiwan problem is not a problem the U.S. is anxious to solve or able to solve. Under current situation, the U.S. can sell to Taiwan military gear for profit and have a hold on the Taiwan government. To China, the Taiwan problem has a clear simple solution. If Taiwan would declare independence or progress close to that status, China would use all her might to take over Taiwan with crashing force if necessary. Hence, the Taiwan problem is presently a real dilemma for the Taiwanese people. However, the problem is solvable by people in Taiwan with a real awakening of their historical mandate.  How an amicable outcome and peaceful future are possible is discussed below.
 
Many strategic analyses on the Taiwan problem exist; Taiwan is generally included in a bigger U.S. strategy, such as Asia-Pacific or China policy. Bounded by U.S. - China Shanghai Communique – the one China Principle and international (UN) recognition, the U.S. cannot engage Taiwan as an ally-nation like Japan or South Korea, but Taiwan has geographically importance in the “First Island Chain' (FIC) strategy - from the Korea Peninsular to Japan, Taiwan, then to the Philippines containing China. Obviously, for FIC to be effective, the U.S. would like to have a hold on Taiwan (she did since 1949) and continue this hold through sales of 'defensive' weapons. Taiwan is mainly a supply source for the U.S. military in her FIC anti-China strategy. However, as China is rising in economic and military strength, the effectiveness of the FIC containment concept is in question. The current tension between the U.S. and China in the East China Sea (ECS) and South China Sea (SCS) is rooted in that question. The U.S. wishes to keep the FIC Strategy effective in containing China by extending the chain into the Indian Ocean by involving her ally Australia and possibly recruiting other nations such as India and Vietnam. However, China's development in naval forces has been very impressive, not only in terms of building carriers, battle ships, jet fighters and missiles but more significantly in strengthening some SCS islands in her possession with basic infrastructure for human habitation including even militarized runways and ports. The more pressure the U.S. is applying to China in ECS and SCS, the more 'defensive' China becomes (defensive weapons could immediately become offensive at war time). With China's overall mature and independent technology capability such as Beidou (GPS system), laser and space and her modernized air force, navy and army, the hawkish voice of reunification is understandably getting louder in China. This trend is definitely leading to a disastrous future for Taiwan if the people in Taiwan is not awakened to facts and reality.
 
Besides selling limited and outdated weapons to Taiwan and passing ambiguous non-binding legislature in Congress to allow more interaction with Taiwan officials, the U.S. did little for Taiwan in the world arena such as curtailing small countries cutting diplomatic ties with Taiwan or getting Taiwan into any significant international organizations. In the media, we see many political commentators (including former Secretary of State Kissinger) warning the U.S. not to cross the red-lines drawn by China. A recent article, entitled, “The Taiwan Temptation – Why Beijing Might Resort to Force”, authored by Oriana Skylat Mastro (July/August 2021 Foreign Affairs), provided key logical answers to why the Taiwan issue is not a problem the U.S. can solve or in this author's opinion the U.S. wish to solve. Mastro, a Center Fellow at Standford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, a fellow at American Enterprise Institute and an inaugural Wilson Center China Fellow, is an international security expert focusing on Chinese military and security policy. In her essay, Mastro first acknowledged the Taiwan problem being a China's internal problem and the One China Principle being recognized by UN and the U.S., then proceeded to give an in-depth analysis on why the U.S. would not like to see a 'Taiwan Strait War' and through five logical thought processes or main points she discussed why the Taiwan Strait War will not produce favorable outcome. (for the U.S. and Taiwan)
 
First, Mastro acknowledged the existence of different options for China to take regarding Taiwan issue; she felt that Xi would be more likely than previous Chinese leaders to force reunification with Taiwan. According to opinion survey, 70% of Chinese people think reunification by force is possible and 37% think possible within 3-5 years. Her second point is that the Chinese military is 'Battle Ready' after 25 years of modernization and recent anti-corruption efforts. She outlined four possible attacks: 1. missiles and air raids, 2. blockade and cyber-attack, 3. attacking U.S. military bases preventing any support for Taiwan, and 4. amphibious landing attack first off-Taiwan islands than Taiwan itself. Mastro concluded that Taiwan would be no match to Mainland in all three types of attack. In fourth, Taiwan might wish to receive some international support, but possibility small. Mastro quoted former Indo-Pacific Commander Philip Davidson saying: “in six years China could take Taiwan by force.” Her third logical analysis is whether Mainland would take a fast or slow action to reunite with Taiwan? Her prediction was China would take a gradual and slow process (a few months, low cost approach). The U.S. would not be able to do anything especially if China did not attack the U.S.
 
Then Mastro followed a wishful thinking logic (4th) to analyze the Taiwan problem. She thought that, the cost to China would be too high and Beijing would be isolated internationally and tied up for decades, were more American projections based on wishful thinking. She thought that China would avoid a protracted and high intensity scenario and would only attack with a confidence of a quick victory (Chinese citizens more than Americans are socially and economically prepared, willing to sacrifice). In her fifth logical analysis, she said, once China had the military ability to solve the Taiwan problem, Xi could find it politically hard not to do so and Xi might also think solving the Taiwan problem would not detract (but help) his “Chinese dream and rejuvenation” program. Taiwan is a 'no-exit' problem, because China has a ready solution waiting for the opportune time and the U.S. has no solution with no desire to solve.
 
This author agrees with Mastro's analyses above but must add one important missing point: Taiwan problem is solvable by the people in Taiwan provided that they will be awakened by the warning bells of war, recalling the memories of history from Japanese occupation, to WW II, to rising of a new and transforming China. The acute tension in the Taiwan Strait will force people to think. The brains washed by DDP propaganda will be awakened by facts and reality. In an awakening mind, calm and serious thoughts will arise: How and what kind of system can be built under the One China Two Systems Principle (One China means protection and two systems mean optimization). China needs different systems to practice and improve governance of all her people, land and water, and 56 minorities. Taiwan Strait Tension presents the Taiwan people the opportunity to solve the Taiwan problem, the historical mandate, for an amicable outcome and a peaceful solution.                
 
0 Comments
<<Previous

    Categories

    All
    Chinese Society
    International Politics
    Reprints
    Taiwan Politics



    An advertisement
    will go here.




    Archives

    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015

    RSS Feed

Proudly powered by Weebly