The reason why Taiwan has become an international security concern is because the issue of its sovereignty has not been completely rectified internationally. Historically, Taiwan belonged to China at least from the 14th century. Japan surrendered at the end of WW II and returned Taiwan to China in 1945 after occupying it for 50 years. Chinese people's revolution against a corrupt Qing Dynasty and their nationwide civil war evolved over many decades (from the 19th to 20th century) into the current cross-strait division. (From 1949 to the present, the People's Republic of China, PRC, is in opposition to the Republic of China, ROC.) Most countries in the world (179 out of 193 United Nations members) recognize the PRC as the legitimate representation of China and do not recognize ROC/Taiwan as an independent political entity or state. A few countries (such as the U.S. and Japan) do wish Taiwan to exist as a political entity but are unwilling or unable to recognize it as a country because they consider Taiwan not being a part of China best serves their national interests (euphemistically called ‘common values’). There are only very few countries (only 12 countries) have diplomatic relations with ROC (Taiwan)) largely held by an incentive - financial aid from Taiwan. Under this somewhat stressful diplomatic situation, the people of Taiwan and Mainland China have peacefully co-existed over 74 years with trade and cultural interaction.
The confrontation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is ideologically ambiguous, changing from seeking unification by force (both sides wanted to conquer the other side) to peaceful reunification without excluding using force if necessary (most people in the mainland have this opinion today) and peaceful coexistence never engaging war, seeking independence, or pushing for reunification. (Most people in Taiwan have this wishful thinking.) The above notions were formed through decades of time when the two sides gradually changed in economic status and the world situation got more complicated. Today, Taiwan's economy has grown from peaking as the number one of the Four Asian Little Dragons to gradually relying on the mainland for a trade surplus, while the mainland has risen from poverty and backwardness to becoming the world's second-largest economy and the world's largest manufacturer, leading in many technologies. This has obviously brought the Taiwan issue - cross-strait reunification - to the forefront on a shorter timetable for resolution. If there were no external interference on the Taiwan issue (the United States, Japan, and others using ambiguous diplomatic strategies to maintain cross-strait division, which they wish to maintain to contain China out of fear for China’s rise. The political ideology of Taiwanese people would not be so muddied, and the two sides of the Taiwan Strait might take the road of ‘gradually talking, gradually learning, and gradually uniting’. After all, most of the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share the same language, race, blood (inheritance), and culture, even their living habits, ethics, and moral values.
However, the Taiwan issue has become more complicated in recent years and Taiwanese people's choices for the future have become blurred caused more by external influences from their touting a vague and hypocritical ‘common value’ argument. (Taiwanese are not entirely like Americans or Japanese in philosophy and culture.) This phenomenon is amplified in every election year, especially during the presidential election year when politicians smear and blur the long-held reunification issue to divide votes. This can be clearly seen in Taiwan's upcoming 2024 general election. Taiwanese people do not want Taiwan to become a second Ukraine. Taiwanese people do not want a war. The Taiwanese’s logic is not wrong. But in this ‘no war’ logic, have the people of Taiwan really thought through how to cast their votes? There is an old saying that the bystander can observe more clearly than the heated fighters or arguers. This is indeed true when it comes to the Taiwan issue. After listening to many Taiwan election commentators, one can draw several conclusions. The presidential candidates have few honest political opinions on the most important issue - reunification (the future of Taiwan). There are also few debates on political or administrative accomplishments or ideas about governing the country. On the Taiwan issue, we can hardly hear any clear proposition; even on the ‘One Country - Two Systems’ or the ‘1992 Consensus’, we do not hear any in-depth discussions nor any commitments. On the contrary, avoiding war has been hyped as the main issue obviously influenced by the Russian-Ukraine war and the Israel-Palestine conflict. Opposition parties make ‘Removing the DPP can avoid war’ the main theme (regardless of who is elected, an absurd notion!), claiming Lai Qingde's pursuit of Taiwan independence will cause a war across the Taiwan Strait. That certainly is a correct assessment, however, none of the opposition candidates are willing to say how to lead Taiwan to peaceful reunification. In the following, the author will analyze from the perspective of a bystander: Taiwan cannot avoid war unless it takes the path of peaceful reunification and turns off external (foreign) influences.
First of all, Taiwanese people must understand that any argument against peaceful reunification is not true love for Taiwan. Peaceful reunification will avoid war; without peace means eventual war. Without unification, the country’s name cannot be rectified; war is more likely with foreign intervention (External interference cannot be avoided as seen today.) People who are afraid that reunification will cause Taiwan to lose its democracy do not understand that true democracy comes deterministically from the people and is not something that the government slogans create. If the people of Taiwan do not have the confidence to lead the government towards true democracy, can true democracy be assured without unification? Without unification and rectification of names/sovereignty, there will be no place for Taiwan on the international stage. There will be more possibility for Taiwan to become like Ukraine, a sacrificing chess piece. On the contrary, after reunification, Taiwan's democracy can progress without foreign interference, which will naturally affect the reunified China (Taiwan and Mainland). After Hong Kong’s reunification with the Mainland, Hong Kong is truly progressing without foreign interference or colonial laws, and Hong Kong is also affecting the whole of China. The thinking of the Taiwanese people should not stop at the slogan of avoiding war but should drill deeper and clearer about what true democracy is. Democracy can have different systems (Doesn’t Her Majesty in Britain also have democracy?) Under what conditions can true democracy be achieved is the question, no foreign intervention is the desirable situation. After thinking through this clearly, the Taiwanese people should choose who can lead Taiwan towards reunification, whose policies can avoid becoming a sacrificial pawn for a foreign power, and who can lead Taiwan toward true democracy. The voters should demand those policy debates from candidates.
Taiwan’s 2024 election logic - Have you thought through it clearly?