Ifay Chang, China-US Forum bilingual columnist
Military alliances as a strategy have a long history in international affairs. China has had a deep understanding of military alliances since the ancient 'Spring and Autumn Period' and the 'Warring States Period'. This strategy is effective in maintaining peace and resolving disputes, but its starting point, purpose, and application must be carefully considered, or it will lead to war. In Chinese history, there were many cases written in books that showed the tragic consequences of improper use of military alliances (see the Spring and Autumn Annals). In China's famous military theory (see Sun Tzu's Art of War), military operations are advised to be always placed below political diplomacy measures. Military alliances have become more widely known as a practice of international foreign policy in modern history. The cause of World War I was the Triple Alliance (Central Powers). Germany, Italy, and the Austria-Hungary Empire formed an alliance and engaged in aggressive behavior, then caused Britain, France, and Russia to organize the Allied Powers, eventually leading to war (a bad consequence!). During the war escalation, Italy revoked its military alliances with the Central Powers and joined the Allied Powers. Russia, with its October Revolution occurring within, became too busy to engage in an external war. The United States watched the conflict and thoughtfully delayed joining the Allies, thus easily becoming a victorious nation in World War I in the end.
Reviewing the events of World War II in modern history, whether from a European point of view, setting the starting point of World War II on September 1, 1937, or from an Asian point of view, setting the starting point of World War II on September 18, 1931, large scale war was eventually triggered because Germany and Japan acted aggressively and adopted a military alliance strategy, which elevated military operations to the level of a world war. It became a confrontation between the Axis Powers (Germany, Italy, and Japan) and the Allies (Britain, Russia, France, the United States, and China). Unfortunately, China was closed, corrupt, and weak during the late years of the Qing Dynasty, and China’s national revolution encountered interference from foreign powers. During its process of building a republic nation, China was invaded and was a victimized nation. Even though China joined the Allies and became the victor in World War II, it ultimately endured the scourge of war for fourteen years. The United States entered World War II at a later stage, and in the early stages, it used trade to make war profits. If Japan hadn't panicked and worried about insufficient war resources and launched a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor to destroy the U.S. Navy and obtain shipping support, the United States might not have joined the Allied Powers in declaring war on Japan. The United States' careful consideration of joining a military alliance was prudent and beneficial in both world wars. This history is worth remembering.
Today, the United States has become the most powerful country in the world. In addition to its rich resources, the biggest reason is the benefits it gained from the two wars. After World War II, the United States regarded itself as the world leader, leading the fight against communist expansion. The U.S. adopted military alliance strategies to gain its influence worldwide and launched the Cold War and regional proxy wars in the name of national/world security. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 due to its economic failure, the United States became the world's largest power. Unfortunately, the United States mistakenly regards military alliances as its primary political and foreign policy. It organized the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Europe and built island chains in Asia to contain Russia and China. It used military alliances as its main tool. However, a military alliance is an aggressive and threatening policy, no matter how it is disguised with a defensive and peaceful purpose. In addition, judging from ancient to modern history, military alliances have two fatal shortcomings. One is that it has huge financial costs, and its consumption of capital gets no productive or financial return. The second is that there are great variables in military alliances, which have a fatal impact on the outcome of the strategy. There are many examples of this in history, China had great losses from its alliances with Russia, Italy's defection in World War I, and during World War II, the U.S.’s declaration of war against the Axis Alliances, against Japan and Germany were all unexpected.
Today, the United States is using NATO to expand its military alliances, and its threat to the Soviet Union cannot be disguised. The United States feels the financial burden of having so many military alliances and must ask everyone to increase the military spending budget which yields no economic return. The member states of NATO are by no means showing or acting in complete unity, this was evident in the Russo-Ukrainian war, putting the favorable outcome beyond the control of the United States. The military alliance between the United States and Israel is essentially giving Israel the ticket to massacring people in Gaza and bombing the Iranian embassy. As a military ally of Israel, the United States feels hands-tied and powerless at this moment, and yet it is extremely afraid of being dragged into a war, especially a possible nuclear war. In Asia, the United States is trying its best to win over Japan and South Korea and strengthen its military alliances. But we must point out its problems. First, there is a century feud between Japan and South Korea, and second, the domestic citizen’s supports of their two leaders today are extremely low, meaning the leaders can be changed thwarting their military alliances with the U.S. There is also a hidden mentality in the two countries which is the feeling of shame of being pressed under the thumb of the United States. In addition, economically both Japan and South Korea rely heavily on the Chinese market. Whether the US-Japan and US-ROK military alliances are blessings or curses cannot be determined by a state visit or a leader’s state dinner. The United States also wants to involve India in the US-UK-Australia-Japan alliance. The Chicago Economic Council surveyed Americans' trust in Japan, South Korea, India, and China on security issues, and India was once rated even lower than China. China’s low rating is understandable because of the constant US media smearing. However, will India's back-biting diplomacy and purchase of Russian military weapons under the guise of its non-alignment policy lend confidence to the U.S.-India military alliance?
Military alliances are by no means a free lunch. President Biden thinks he is a veteran in diplomacy. As China rose and the United States gradually lost its influence, Biden’s Administration pursued more military alliances with a Cold War mentality to suppress China's development. This is a wrong policy that harms the world; it does not benefit the U.S. It has unintended consequences and predictable dangerous outcomes. Frankly, I must say the following things that today’s American politicians will not say or unwilling to listen. Not every country agrees with the US-centered national or world security policy. For example, Australia has no reason to take a confrontational line with the United States against China. China is not a threat to Australia but is a huge importer of Australian coal, iron, wine, and lobster. Since taking office, the new Prime Minister, Albanese, has eased the Australia-China tension created by former PM, Morrison. Southeast Asian nations, including Vietnam, are not willing to choose sides and engage in unreasonable anti-China diplomacy. Their trade and exchanges with China are win-win businesses. One wonders if it is beneficial for the United States to support Japan’s military resurgence. Why does the U.S. ignore the predictable mutual benefits and prosperity obtainable by peaceful cooperation and fair competition with China? Is the United States so afraid of losing and so lacking in self-confidence? Americans should have the courage to reflect and invest more energy and capital in its infrastructure, economy, and people's livelihoods than waste them on military alliances. Again, military alliances are not a free lunch!
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