Russia is a big nation with military power next only to the U.S. since World War II. However, in the 21st century, two things altered the world order. First, the Soviet Union collapsed due to its failure to manage its economy. Russia is now a lone country struggling in economic development although still possessing a huge military power, especially including a sizable nuclear arsenal. Second, the People's Republic of China has risen from one of the poorest nations on Earth to become the second largest economy in the world with the strongest manufacturing capability supplying more than half of the world's needs in consumer goods. The only thing challenging China right now is how to unite with Taiwan which has been separated from China due to a domestic battle prolonged by its treacherous revolution to build a Republic nation against a corrupt Qing emperor and external powers who were trying to colonize China. To this day, Taiwan's status was kept from reunification mainly due to external influence on the Taiwan government. Russia was one of the external influences in China along with the U.S. The two superpowers backed the PRC and ROC separately throughout WWII to the Korean War creating the cross-strait separation existing today. Russia's influence over the PRC has diminished as the PRC rises to be independent, however, ROC (Taiwan) has not yet succeeded in shaking the U.S. influence to unite with Mainland China as West and East Germany did.
As the PRC continues its rapid development in economic, social, military, and political development, it inevitably is gaining influence on the world stage which has made the U.S. worry about losing its dominating position in the world. Hence, the U.S. has included China with Russia as its rivals on the world stage, even though China has always advocated for a peaceful rise seeking collaborative economic development rather than military confrontation or any colonial behavior that humiliated China for nearly one and half centuries. Unfortunately, the U.S. was too used to hegemony behavior to accept the changing world. Thus, the U.S. foreign policy rooted in the “Thucydides Trap” notion was playing a zero-sum (I win you lose) strategy not accepting a collaborative win-win relationship. The present wars happening between Russia and Ukraine or between Israel and Hamas, to a large extent, were caused by the U.S. foreign policy strategy. Recently, Taiwan has become “the world's most dangerous place' (As reported by the Economist) with the potential not only to stir up military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait but also the probability of leading to world war. The U.S. has been selling military gear to Taiwan and painted a war scenario despite China always pursuing the route of peaceful reunification barring Taiwan declaring independence.
Taiwan, at the center of the world's attention on world war, seems to show a bipolar personality. The government with its politicians is playing with the U.S. anti-China tune while its people seem to be ignorant about the motives and consequences of the 'ambiguous Taiwan policy' the U.S. is playing. Recently, this author came across a press interview of Andrey Denisov who is a senior foreign diplomat with credentials being Russia's deputy minister of foreign affairs and ambassador to China. This interview has been entitled “It's best not to pretend to be asleep. I give this advice to the United States and Taiwan.” (7-14-2023) This author read the interview in Chinese (www.Guancha.cn) but did not find it in English, but Americans (including Chinese Americans and Taiwanese) need to know about it. In the following, it is the author's comments on this interview.
Andrey Denisov said: The U.S.'s policy towards Russia is filled with hostility, such actions will not bring any substantive benefits but will provoke China since Russia and China have back-to-back relationships. This view is generally correct, the U.S. is essentially strengthening the Russia-China relations. Responding to a question on Blinken's speech in Finland: “The U.S. is not an enemy of Russia.” “A secure and prosperous Russia aligns with U.S. interests.” Denisov responded: “We will judge the truthfulness of these words based on the actions of the U.S. Over the years, ….caused us harm. It is hard to mend a broken mirror, and relying on these empty words to restore trust doesn't make sense. “Denisov further responded to Blinken's speech: “Blinken's implicit message is nothing more than this: if Russia submits to the so-called rule-based order led by the United States, conforms to the U.S. vision for the modern world, and consents to the U.S. hegemonic policies towards almost all countries worldwide, then Russia has the chance to repair its relationship with the United States. In short, if Russia yields to U.S. hegemony, the United States is willing to be friends with Russia – that is the reality.” “Now, U.S. weapons are killing our people, and for the United States, this seems routine. People have already been killed by them, and in this context, officials from the U.S. State Department and the White House are coming forward to make so-called peace statements. Hypocrisy truly knows no bounds.”
On the Taiwan issue, the interviewer made a clear description of U.S. actions, including Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, …” These continuous provocations expose the true intentions of U.S....What is the likelihood of China and the United States getting into a hot conflict, especially considering the intense situation around the Taiwan Strait?” Denisov responded: “The situation around Taiwan is heating up, but this is a "man-made escalation" caused by U.S. provocations.” He then quoted the Russian proverb: “It's best not to pretend to be asleep," and I extend this saying to the United States and Taiwan.” This is an acute observation of the ignorance and behavior of the Taiwanese people - letting others lead their fate to peril. Then the interview turned to the Russia-Ukraine war and China's proposal for a peaceful settlement. Denisov holds a purely positive attitude towards China's twelve-point peace plan.” By proposing this plan, China is attempting to alleviate a serious international conflict that has been ongoing for some time, demonstrating China's determination to address the issue. However, I believe this reflects an issue. Recently, China has been trying to adopt a rather restrained position in various international crises and conflicts, advising countries worldwide to focus on events happening in neighboring countries, concentrate on bilateral relations with neighboring nations, and avoid intervening in external affairs.”
Denisov then commented further on China's diplomatic policy which he terms as a historic leadership. He cited China's mediation making Saudi Arabia and Iran achieve a historic reconciliation despite deep-rooted structural contradictions and hostilities between the two. Russia welcomes China's plan for peace. Extending the discussion to U.S.-China relations, Denisov's view is that the economic and trade relations between the two countries are indeed inseparable, with deep mutual influence and connection. In terms of trade volume, the United States is China's third-largest trading partner, surpassed only by ASEAN and the EU. On the topic of U.S.-China relations, economic relations act as an anchor that can maintain or even strengthen political relations between the two countries, however, ...not unbreakable. (Citing Russia-Germany mutually beneficial economy broken because of political ill maneuver. Germany's trade (economy) has suffered badly.) Here, one may point to Taiwan-Mainland trade relations. The ECFA trade agreement has given Taiwan trade advantages (Surplus ~$25-100 billion/Year in recent years) Yet, its current government's political stance may be jeopardizing the trade relations which may have a devastating effect on Taiwan's economy. Perhaps, the Taiwanese people should read Denisov's warning as 旁观者清- A Chinese proverb – A on-looker sees the best!
Russia is a big nation with military power next only to the U.S. since World War II. However, in the 21st century, two things altered the world order. First, the Soviet Union collapsed due to its failure to manage its economy. Russia is now a lone country struggling in economic development although still possessing a huge military power, especially including a sizable nuclear arsenal. Second, the People's Republic of China has risen from one of the poorest nations on Earth to become the second largest economy in the world with the strongest manufacturing capability supplying more than half of the world's needs in consumer goods. The only thing challenging China right now is how to unite with Taiwan which has been separated from China due to a domestic battle prolonged by its treacherous revolution to build a Republic nation against a corrupt Qing emperor and external powers who were trying to colonize China. To this day, Taiwan's status was kept from reunification mainly due to external influence on the Taiwan government. Russia was one of the external influences in China along with the U.S. The two superpowers backed the PRC and ROC separately throughout WWII to the Korean War creating the cross-strait separation existing today. Russia's influence over the PRC has diminished as the PRC rises to be independent, however, ROC (Taiwan) has not yet succeeded in shaking the U.S. influence to unite with Mainland China as West and East Germany did.
As the PRC continues its rapid development in economic, social, military, and political development, it inevitably is gaining influence on the world stage which has made the U.S. worry about losing its dominating position in the world. Hence, the U.S. has included China with Russia as its rivals on the world stage, even though China has always advocated for a peaceful rise seeking collaborative economic development rather than military confrontation or any colonial behavior that humiliated China for nearly one and half centuries. Unfortunately, the U.S. was too used to hegemony behavior to accept the changing world. Thus, the U.S. foreign policy rooted in the “Thucydides Trap” notion was playing a zero-sum (I win you lose) strategy not accepting a collaborative win-win relationship. The present wars happening between Russia and Ukraine or between Israel and Hamas, to a large extent, were caused by the U.S. foreign policy strategy. Recently, Taiwan has become “the world's most dangerous place' (As reported by the Economist) with the potential not only to stir up military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait but also the probability of leading to world war. The U.S. has been selling military gear to Taiwan and painted a war scenario despite China always pursuing the route of peaceful reunification barring Taiwan declaring independence.
Taiwan, at the center of the world's attention on world war, seems to show a bipolar personality. The government with its politicians is playing with the U.S. anti-China tune while its people seem to be ignorant about the motives and consequences of the 'ambiguous Taiwan policy' the U.S. is playing. Recently, this author came across a press interview of Andrey Denisov who is a senior foreign diplomat with credentials being Russia's deputy minister of foreign affairs and ambassador to China. This interview has been entitled “It's best not to pretend to be asleep. I give this advice to the United States and Taiwan.” (7-14-2023) This author read the interview in Chinese (www.Guancha.cn) but did not find it in English, but Americans (including Chinese Americans and Taiwanese) need to know about it. In the following, it is the author's comments on this interview.
Andrey Denisov said: The U.S.'s policy towards Russia is filled with hostility, such actions will not bring any substantive benefits but will provoke China since Russia and China have back-to-back relationships. This view is generally correct, the U.S. is essentially strengthening the Russia-China relations. Responding to a question on Blinken's speech in Finland: “The U.S. is not an enemy of Russia.” “A secure and prosperous Russia aligns with U.S. interests.” Denisov responded: “We will judge the truthfulness of these words based on the actions of the U.S. Over the years, ….caused us harm. It is hard to mend a broken mirror, and relying on these empty words to restore trust doesn't make sense. “Denisov further responded to Blinken's speech: “Blinken's implicit message is nothing more than this: if Russia submits to the so-called rule-based order led by the United States, conforms to the U.S. vision for the modern world, and consents to the U.S. hegemonic policies towards almost all countries worldwide, then Russia has the chance to repair its relationship with the United States. In short, if Russia yields to U.S. hegemony, the United States is willing to be friends with Russia – that is the reality.” “Now, U.S. weapons are killing our people, and for the United States, this seems routine. People have already been killed by them, and in this context, officials from the U.S. State Department and the White House are coming forward to make so-called peace statements. Hypocrisy truly knows no bounds.”
On the Taiwan issue, the interviewer made a clear description of U.S. actions, including Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, …” These continuous provocations expose the true intentions of U.S....What is the likelihood of China and the United States getting into a hot conflict, especially considering the intense situation around the Taiwan Strait?” Denisov responded: “The situation around Taiwan is heating up, but this is a "man-made escalation" caused by U.S. provocations.” He then quoted the Russian proverb: “It's best not to pretend to be asleep," and I extend this saying to the United States and Taiwan.” This is an acute observation of the ignorance and behavior of the Taiwanese people - letting others lead their fate to peril. Then the interview turned to the Russia-Ukraine war and China's proposal for a peaceful settlement. Denisov holds a purely positive attitude towards China's twelve-point peace plan.” By proposing this plan, China is attempting to alleviate a serious international conflict that has been ongoing for some time, demonstrating China's determination to address the issue. However, I believe this reflects an issue. Recently, China has been trying to adopt a rather restrained position in various international crises and conflicts, advising countries worldwide to focus on events happening in neighboring countries, concentrate on bilateral relations with neighboring nations, and avoid intervening in external affairs.”
Denisov then commented further on China's diplomatic policy which he terms as a historic leadership. He cited China's mediation making Saudi Arabia and Iran achieve a historic reconciliation despite deep-rooted structural contradictions and hostilities between the two. Russia welcomes China's plan for peace. Extending the discussion to U.S.-China relations, Denisov's view is that the economic and trade relations between the two countries are indeed inseparable, with deep mutual influence and connection. In terms of trade volume, the United States is China's third-largest trading partner, surpassed only by ASEAN and the EU. On the topic of U.S.-China relations, economic relations act as an anchor that can maintain or even strengthen political relations between the two countries, however, ...not unbreakable. (Citing Russia-Germany mutually beneficial economy broken because of political ill maneuver. Germany's trade (economy) has suffered badly.) Here, one may point to Taiwan-Mainland trade relations. The ECFA trade agreement has given Taiwan trade advantages (Surplus ~$25-100 billion/Year in recent years) Yet, its current government's political stance may be jeopardizing the trade relations which may have a devastating effect on Taiwan's economy. Perhaps, the Taiwanese people should read Denisov's warning as 旁观者清- A Chinese proverb – A on-looker sees the best!
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